Howard Dean: Georgia special election result points to Democrats easily retaking the House in 2018
Howard Dean, the former Governor of Vermont and the former DNC Chair, tends to call it like he sees it. After the twin special elections in extremely red districts in Georgia and South Carolina this week, some on the left were disappointed that the Democrats were unable to win either race. But Dean pointed to the mathematical reality of what those results mean.
In November, Republican House candidate Tom Price won the GA-06 by a twenty-one point margin. But this week Republican House candidate Karen Handel won that same district around four points. That shift of seventeen points in favor of the Democrats, along with a similar shift in the South Carolina district, makes clear that Donald Trump’s toxic unpopularity is poisoning the Republicans in these races. It also makes clear that the Democrats are making unprecedented gains and are clearly doing something right.
Howard Dean pointed to this math in terms of how it applies to the midterms: “Looking at House races, Dems win 50 seats in 2018 if our candidates close the gap as much as these two did” (link). He then retweeted Jessica O’Donnell, the CEO of the DNC, after she pointed out that “Democrats need to win 24 House seats to take back the House. There are 71 seats bluer than GA 6.” (link). In other words, there is only one knowledgeable way to interpret this week’s special election results: it’s fantastic news for the Democrats, and a nightmare scenario for the Republicans. And it’s not only the Democrats who see it that way.
Richard Painter, a straight shooting Republican pundit, put it thusly: “RNC/RCCC never approve cabinet nomination of a House or Senate member who does not have a very safe R seat. Keeping it should be pg. 6 news” (link). In other words, the Republican Party only allowed those two seats to be vacated because the resulting special elections were supposed to be automatic blowout victories. Instead, the GOP collapsed in both of those “safe” districts – and similar sized collapse in the 2018 midterms will mean an overwhelming majority for the Democrats.
