Democrats just won big in a special election and flipped a seat in Alabama

Over the past few years the Democratic Party has outperformed its poll numbers (and outperformed historical-based projections) in just about every election. Special election, midterm election, off year election. You name it, the Democrats keep doing better than they were expected to.

That happened again tonight in a special election in Alabama, for a state legislature seat:

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This is a tremendous shift in expectations, and undeniably good news for the Democrats heading into 2024. To be clear, this is for a state legislature seat, so it doesn’t impact the currently teetering majority in the U.S. House. And it doesn’t suddenly mean Alabama will be in play in November in general. But it’s proof that the polls and such really don’t tell us much anymore. The Democrats nearly always outperform their numbers these days, often by sizable margins, and you can expect President Biden to do the same in 2024.