Donald Trump’s base can’t save him from his demise
Tune in to the major media outlets, and you’ll hear an ongoing debate about whether Donald Trump’s latest inept or scandalous development will finally turn his base against him. Take a look at the social media conversations among those who oppose Trump, and you’ll find a common lament about how Trump’s base might still stick with him despite his latest failure. But I’m here to tell you, Donald Trump’s base couldn’t be more irrelevant to the question of whether he sinks or swims – and the numbers prove it.
Political journalism legend Dan Rather said something today that I’ve been saying since the day Donald Trump took office: if Trump’s approval rating drops below the thirty percent mark, the Republicans in Congress will decide they need to throw him overboard in order to avoid getting wiped out in the midterms (link). I’m gratified to see that someone of Dan Rather’s gravitas agrees with me on this. But it’s not as if I invented the wheel when I first pointed to the 30% threshold back in January.
The reasoning behind it is simple enough. The Republicans care far more about keeping their own jobs than they do about whether Trump keeps his job. They’d rather not suffer the ignominy of having to turn against a sitting President of their own party, but they’ll do it if that’s what it takes to get themselves reelected in the midterms. The latest average of polls puts Trump’s approval rating at around 37% and dropping (link). That means if he loses another 8%, he’ll lose the support of his party. And that can easily happen even if he doesn’t lose a single member of his base.
Around one-fourth of eligible Americans voted for Donald Trump (along with just over one-fourth voting for Hillary Clinton, and roughly half not voting). So if only a fourth of Americans voted for Trump to begin with, and plenty of them did it tepidly or merely for party reasons, his base might only be 10% to 15% of the country. Trump can easily drop below a 30% approval rating even if his base remains entirely intact. So it’s time for the media, and the Resistance, to stop focusing on Trump’s base one way or the other. His base may never give up on him, but that doesn’t matter – and the numbers prove it. If you’re a regular reader, feel free to support Palmer Report. Follow Palmer Report on Facebook and Twitter.
