Forget the whole “Republicans will never impeach” fatalism. Donald Trump Jr. just changed the entire game.
There are those among the Resistance who are of the unwavering belief that the Republican Congress won’t take any impeachment action against Donald Trump under any circumstances – but no one has never offered any evidence to back up that belief. The cold hard reality is that the GOP hasn’t moved against Trump yet because he hasn’t quite gone off that cliff where he’s toxic enough to cost them the midterms. But today the entire equation changed, thanks to Donald Trump Jr.
If you haven’t heard the story by now, the New York Times exposed that Trump Junior met with a Kremlin representative during the campaign, and they had a conversation about damaging information that could be used against Hillary Clinton (link). Moreover, Trump Junior is admitting to this, though he’s trying to frame the whole thing as something of a comedy of errors that didn’t go anywhere. Suddenly the discussion has shifted from whether collusion took place, to whether this collusion constituted treason.
The Republicans in Congress have been dragging their feet in the hope that Donald Trump’s popularity level, though historically unpopular for a first-year president, might manage to hold steady at this level through the midterms. After all, Trump isn’t yet in the range that Richard Nixon had plunged to when his Republican compatriots and his Southern Democrat allies in Congress decided to pull the plug on him.
But if you’ve been waiting and hoping for something that might push Trump below that proverbial Mendoza line, making him so unpopular that the current Republican Congress decides to eject him to save themselves, this very well might be it. Here’s what to watch for in the coming days.
As always, ignore Trump’s base. They’re far too small to float him on their own. Look for the reactions of Republicans in Congress this week. Forget about Paul and McConnell for now, because they’d be the last ones to reluctantly go down this path. Instead, watch to see how many rank-and-file Republicans in Congress, specifically the ones in moderate districts and states, begin publicly steering the conversation to impeachment, as a way of pressuring Ryan and McConnell to go there.
Make no mistake: the Republicans in Congress will do anything at all to try to preserve their own chances of getting reelected. Even their cheats, such as gerrymandering and voter suppression, only move the needle a tiny bit, and won’t help them if they can’t keep the races close to begin with. If they selfishly conclude that they have to impeach Donald Trump in order to keep their own jobs, they’ll do it. The first law of politics is find a way to stay in the game. For the GOP’s own survival, that may now require taking Trump out of the game. If you’re a regular reader, feel free to support Palmer Report
