Buzz continues to grow around “President Orrin Hatch”
For months there has been intermittent buzz about “President Orrin Hatch” across social media, and this week a pair of stories set that buzz into high gear. One storyline has Donald Trump and Mike Pence both going down for obstruction. Another has the Republican National Committee taking Russian money, which some have presumptively assumed will incriminate Paul Ryan. So now the buzz has become overwhelming: if they’re all ousted, could Orrin Hatch truly become President of the United States?
Despite having been constitutionally set in stone for the past fifty years, the Presidential Order of Succession is widely misstated and misunderstood. Many are unaware that the line of succession lists the Speaker of the House and the Senate Pro Tempore ahead of any cabinet member. Further, many have confused Senate Pro Tempore with Senate Majority Leader. But the reality is that after Trump, Pence, and Ryan, the next in line is in fact eighty-three year old Republican Senate Pro Tempore Orrin Hatch of Utah.
That’s raised eyebrows because aides have recently been seen whispering every word of a speech into Hatch’s ear, suggesting he may be fading. However there is also a widespread misunderstanding about how the theoretical line of succession would be likely to play out in the real world, and the odds of Hatch assuming office even if everyone ahead of him were to be ousted. We’ve seen this play out once before, and it was instructive.
Let’s say Special Counsel Robert Mueller ends his investigation by recommending serious criminal charges against Trump, Pence and Ryan. That won’t cause a trap door to immediately open up under each of them. Impeachment and removal are still a political process. Even if overwhelming public pressure then forces the Republicans in Congress to oust all three men, they’ll probably decide to stagger the ousters so they can hand pick the next President.
For instance the GOP could pressure Pence to resign, then it could pressure lame-duck Trump to nominate whatever new VP it’s hand picked. Then the party could pressure Trump to resign or impeach and remove him. Suddenly the hand picked newcomer would inherit the presidency, despite having started off not being anywhere in the line of succession. We know this is possible, not only because the Constitution spells it out, but because it’s almost precisely how Gerald Ford became President.
Many Americans are unaware that Gerald Ford started off not being in the line of succession at all. He was simply a random Congressman from Michigan who was shoehorned into the White House because he was seen as a controversy-free unifying figure. First, VP Spiro Agnew was pressured to resign. Then Ford was appointed and confirmed. Then Nixon was forced to resign under threat of impeachment. If the Republican Party faces the choice of allowing the elderly and fading Orrin Hatch to assume the presidency, or hand picking someone who elicits more confidence from the public, it’s likely to choose the latter. In order to retain credibility, the Republican Party would almost certainly have to choose someone the Democratic Party can also live with. Again, this is what happened with Ford.
Further, if impeachment were to take place after the Democrats retake the House majority in the midterms, Paul Ryan would be gone from the line of succession and replaced by new Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (link). This would take Orrin Hatch out of the equation by default, with Pelosi now ahead of him. So while the theoretical possibility of “President Hatch” is very real, in real world terms it’s most likely just an enduring myth – though an intriguing one.
