I told you Jon Ossoff’s near-win in Georgia meant the Democrats had all the momentum

| 12:21 am EDT August 9, 2017
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I’m going to do that arrogant thing where I point out that I told you so — not because I want credit for having been right, but because I want to make sure everyone is on the same page on a crucial issue heading into the midterm races. When Democrat Jon Ossoff pulled off a near-victory in a deeply red district in Georgia, I pointed out that it meant the Democrats had all the momentum going forward. That’s since proven to be true in special election after special election.

The Democrats won a special election in Iowa last night (link), in a district that had been dominated by Donald Trump and the Republicans in November. This comes shortly after the Democrats won a pair of special elections in the red state of Oklahoma. Before that the Democrats won a special election, in a New Hampshire district that had never been anything but red. These are all statehouse-type elections that don’t involve the U.S. House or Senate, so these races are not getting any national news coverage. But they demonstrate that the Democrats are on a roll. And this was easily predictable, based on the math from the night Ossoff nearly won.

Donald Trump bragged earlier this year that his Republican Party had won all of the major special elections that got all the national media attention. But that’s because he and his team created those special elections by plucking people for his cabinet from deeply red districts, where the resulting special elections should have been automatic Republican blowout victories – and yet the Republicans just barely won each of them.

The Republican had just won that seat by around twenty points in November. But then this summer, Democrat Jon Ossoff came within a couple points of pulling off the upset in that same district. In so doing, the Democrats had a net gain of around seventeen points in that district. That wasn’t just a moral victory. It, and the other special elections before it, were proof that Democrats were massively overperforming. So it’s no surprise at all that the Democrats have won every special election that’s taken place since.