Donald Trump’s base is crumbling
Donald Trump has carried out his entire presidency under the premise that his own base, which is comparatively small and disconnected from the American mainstream, but which fiercely cheered him during the campaign, will never abandon him as long as he keeps pandering to them. Pessimistic members of the Resistance have also feared Trump’s base will never abandon him. Yet now we’re seeing hard numerical evidence that it’s indeed happening.
First, let’s be clear about what Donald Trump’s “base” is. He’s always had an inner core base of dedicated supporters whom I’ve pegged around 15%, while Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has pegged at being closer to around 20%. These are the people who wake up each morning thinking “I can’t wait to see what Trump says today.” Then he has an outer or secondary base that’s never been enthusiastic about him, but does passively support him, and accounts for the remainder of this approval rating.
Since taking office, Trump’s average approval rating has gone from low to mid forties, to mid thirties, meaning he’s quietly lost as much as ten percent of the country. By all accounts, these defections have been coming from his outer base, which isn’t his “real” base; some people who passively supported him have simply given up as he’s continued to fail. But these new polls suggest that Trump is now losing support within his inner base as well.
The key is that he’s not losing them outright. If you like, you can dig through the raw data from every approval rating poll link). But the short of it is that his core base members is now shifting from categories like “enthusiastic support” to mere categories like “support.” This doesn’t drive down his overall approval rating. But it shows that his support is nonetheless softening. His core base isn’t abandoning him, but its degree of support for him is becoming more tentative. That’s a quantifiable step toward some of them ending up abandoning him altogether.
As I’ve pointed out many times before, Donald Trump can fall into the natural impeachment range of the high twenties without losing a single member of his inner core base, which resides well below that mark. Up to now, the supporters he’s lost have been the ones who were the most passive to begin with. But now the numbers suggest that even Trump’s “true” inner base is crumbling from within. This is the worst news possible for him.
