California just put the Republican Party behind the eight ball in the 2020 presidential election
On most days, it’s too early to be talking about the 2020 presidential election at all. But when a state makes a pair of changes to its laws in a manner which might have a major impact on 2020, it’s indeed newsworthy. California, which hasn’t played a major role in either party’s presidential hopes in quite some time, just made two distinct changes which – whether by intention or not – have served to put the Republican Party directly behind the 2020 eight ball.
California passed a bill this week requiring presidential candidates to release their tax returns in order to get on the ballot (link). Now it’s in the process of passing another measure which would change the date of the California primary. It’s the latter which will cause the former to matter. Let’s say Donald Trump somehow manages to go four years without actually being ousted, and then limps into the reelection process. We already know that he’d rather lose than release his taxes. But the California primary comes so late, and California is so irrelevant in the general election (the Democrats always win it), Trump can just thumb his nose at the state, right? Not anymore.
After having passed the law requiring tax returns, California has also just passed a bill – likely to be signed into law – which will move its primary to just before Super Tuesday (link). This shouldn’t set off the kind of controversy involved when states began changing their primary dates in 2008, because in this instance California will still take place safely after Iowa and New Hampshire. But it will make the California primary matter greatly – particularly when it comes to Trump.
Let’s say Trump decides to just skip the California Republican primary in order to avoid releasing his taxes. That’ll mean some other Republican candidate will pick up the state’s huge haul of delegates very early in the primary process, thus putting Trump in a huge hole. He could then keep plugging along, but even if he gradually caught up in later states, it would make for a very long – and likely bitterly divisive – primary. Even if Trump is ousted, it’ll still make a mess for the GOP in 2020. They’d love to follow Trump’s lead of not releasing their taxes. But because of the California primary, they’ll have to do it.
