Posts by Bill Palmer

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When the Democrats won the special election on Tuesday, they didn’t just win an evenly matched “toss up” race by ten points. They won in a district (and a state) that was one of their weakest areas just a year and a half ago. It’s easy to forget that if not for weak turnout in…

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Ever since Donald Trump lost the 2020 election by seven million votes and was forced out of office, he’s been on a historic losing streak. He’s lost his civil trials. He’s losing his criminal trials. And his party keeps losing elections. Now it’s happened again. Donald Trump wasn’t directly involved in Republican candidate Mazi Pilip’s…

Earlier today House Republicans hit the panic button by rushing through an impeachment vote against DHS Secretary Alexander Mayorkas. They knew it was a risky proposition because they were in danger of not having the votes, and indeed they only succeeded by one vote. Now we know why they took the risk today. Tonight’s special…

New York’s 3rd House District is very evenly matched between the two parties, and in fact the Republicans won it in 2022. Accordingly, I went into today’s special election saying that if Democratic candidate Tom Suozzi won even by a single vote, it would be good news for Biden and the Democrats in November. I…

With House Republicans resigning, retiring early, and even getting expelled, their already-slim majority keeps getting even narrower. Each time their numbers drop, they become even more comically inept. And now their numbers just dropped even further. In the special election to replace House Republican George Santos, Democratic candidate Tom Suozzi has won according to Decision…

Even as we wait for the polls to close at 9pm eastern time in the New York special election to replace George Santos in the U.S. House, a different special election in Pennsylvania has already been called. The special election for a state legislature seat was a theoretically pivotal one, because the majority was on…

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In politics, or in any adversarial scenario, there’s a natural tendency to assume that if the other side makes an oddly specific move, they must know what they’re doing. Even if you know for certain that the people making the move are idiots, and even if you can logically see that the move has no…

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We’re up against it now. Donald Trump’s criminal trials are about to get underway. In the midst of it all, the 2024 election is this year. If you’re still thinking there’s another holiday season and such between now and the 2024 election, that’s not the case. The election is coming fast. I don’t know (or…

Yesterday I wrote that we were having a “stupid news day.” That was because the headlines and conversations were being dominated by the ill fated legal effort to remove Donald Trump from the ballot, and the fake scandal involving Joe Biden and classified documents. Neither of these stories was ever going anywhere, and in spite…