Yes, Joe Manchin is still going to cave

Senator Joe Manchin had recently been giving off signs that he knew he was going to soon have to cave on either Build Back Better or voting rights legislation. It seemed clear that at least one of these two things was on track to happen. But then Manchin appeared on Fox News of all networks yesterday morning and abruptly announced that he will not vote for Build Back Better, and that he doesn’t support exempting voting rights from the filibuster either.

This sent shockwaves of doom and gloom, panic, and defeatism. The media and the pundits tripped over each other to declare that President Biden’s agenda is “dead” or “doomed” or “finished” or “that’s the ballgame.” Accordingly, most activists understandably spent their day simply complaining about Manchin, as if there was nothing else that could be done. But here’s the thing.

Joe Manchin is one of those corrupt politicians who likes to play both sides against each other, so that he can come off as a moderate with an independent streak in the eyes of the voters in his state, even as he gets things for himself by playing both sides (see also: Susan Collins).

Manchin is the guy who agrees in principle to a price on a used car, but then shows up to sign the paperwork and suddenly announces he doesn’t think he can go through with it. It’s an obvious tactic aimed at getting just a little more for himself at the last minute – and it often works, because at that late stage of the game the other side just needs to get the deal done.

Sure enough, President Biden says he’s going to find a way to get Manchin to change his mind. And he will, both because Biden has to get this done, and because Manchin is clearly fishing for an offer. Will Biden have to make one final round of cuts to the bill? Will he have to throw some pork barrel Manchin’s way? We’ll see.

I can tell you this much for certain: right now Biden and Manchin are circling each other, each trying to pressure the other into backing down. Manchin knows that his “I’m never caving” stunt caused a whole lot of liberal activists to give up hope and hide under their desks, which was the entire point. Biden knows that Manchin is way out on a limb and in over his head. Something has to give, and it will.

There’s no such thing as Manchin saying “I’ll never cave” and then Biden saying “oh well I tried” and then just giving up. There’s no such thing as Manchin being able to remain politically viable if he lets Build Back Better die entirely and then has to explain to his constituents back home why he cost them so much in resources. Manchin publicly squeezed Biden yesterday, now Biden will use the power of the presidency to privately squeeze Manchin, one or both of them will give ground, and this will get done. Maybe it’ll be in a week, maybe it’ll be in four months, but this will get done.

The kicker is that you – yes you, the person reading this – will go a long way toward determining when and how Biden and Manchin end up reaching their final agreement on Build Back Better. If you just hide under your desk and yell around about how all hope is lost, Manchin will point out to Biden that he’s managed to deflate Biden’s base, which will give leverage to Manchin. But if you call Manchin’s bluff, if you stand tall and make clear on social media that you’re not going to give up just because he’s running his mouth again, if you ratchet up the pressure on him by making civil but firm phone calls to his office and such, then Manchin will have minimal leverage, and Biden will have most of the leverage.

This is one of these times where you have to ask yourself whether you participate in political activism because you want to fight and win and make a difference, or simply because you want to have someone to be outraged at. If it’s the latter, then you’re useless to your own cause; you’re eager to lose, so you can feel the most outrage. But if you’re here because you want to win and make a difference, now is the time to show it. Are you going to cave to a lightweight like Joe Manchin, and prove yourself to be a bigger coward than he is? Or are you going to bend this pathetic lightweight Joe Manchin to your will? His office phone number is (202) 224-3954. The choice is yours as to whether you want to whine and lose, or fight and win.