Yeah, Donald Trump is going to prison
The wheels of justice turn so gradually, particularly when taking down a criminal politician, it’s easy to fall into the pessimism trap of thinking that Donald Trump will never have to answer for his crimes, even after he’s been ousted for them. However, the facts and circumstances of the situation make clear that there is no chance of Trump avoiding prison. In fact he’s going to spend the rest of his life there. Hear me out on this.
Take a look at the various criminal charges that Paul Manafort faced before he cut his plea deal: conspiracy against the United States, money laundering, wire fraud, witness tampering, and obstruction of justice, among others. This is more or less the template for the criminal charges that Donald Trump will face. Manafort would have been theoretically looking at up to 300 years in prison if he hadn’t flipped.
So now we know what Trump will be looking at once he’s indicted and charged. But he’s going to magically pardon himself before he’s ousted, right? No. Even if he tries, it could be struck down by the Supreme Court for being unconstitutional. But Mike Pence will just pardon him, right? Doubtful. Pence would destroy his presidency right out of the gate by pardoning Trump (see Gerald Ford and Richard Nixon), and Pence is neither that selfless nor that stupid. Even if Trump were pardoned, it wouldn’t matter much.
If Donald Trump were somehow pardoned on all federal charges, which is extraordinarily unlikely to begin with, he’ll still face parallel state level charges in New York – and we just learned that Michael Cohen has sold Trump out to the state of New York. State charges can’t be pardoned by any current or future president. So when Trump is found guilty in New York on charges that carry hundreds of years in prison, he’ll spend the rest of his life in prison. It’s as simple as that. The only way Trump won’t die in a cell is if he dies of natural causes before his trial.
