Why I was wrong about a brokered convention

| 11:10 pm EDT March 10, 2020
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Coming out of the Nevada caucus, I made two predictions: 1) Even though the media was crowning Bernie Sanders as the presumptive nominee, he would not end up getting a majority of the delegates. 2) No one would get a majority, and we’d head to a brokered convention, where someone other than Sanders would likely end up with the nomination. I was right about #1, but wrong about #2.

I’m usually right when it comes to these kinds of predictions. So when I do end up being wrong, it’s important to acknowledge as much, and try to figure out why. I believe the answer comes down to five words: Mike Bloomberg unexpectedly dropped out.

My mathematical model predicting a brokered convention was based on the presumption that Mike Bloomberg would remain in the race and keep picking off delegates from Joe Biden, thus preventing Biden from being able to win a majority. To give you an idea of the negative impact that Bloomberg was having on Biden: the latest updated numbers show that Bernie Sanders is ahead by seven points in California. Bloomberg got thirteen percent of the vote in the state. Biden only lost California because Bloomberg was in the race.

Now imagine if this pattern had continued in states like Michigan and Florida, where Bloomberg’s presence caused Biden to lose half the states he’s currently winning. We’d have ended up with something like Biden and Sanders each getting 40-45% of the total delegates, and by rule, we’d have had a brokered convention.

In short, my predication was only wrong because I mistakenly thought Mike Bloomberg would remain in the race a lot longer than he did. It’s rare to see a multibillionaire do the humble thing, like Bloomberg did when he dropped out immediately after his poor showing on Super Tuesday. So we can all thank Bloomberg for doing the right thing and clearing a path for Biden to win a clear majority of delegates, saving us from a brokered convention.