Donald Trump has a whole new problem
As he is wont to do, Donald Trump sent a tweet on Wednesday that was intended to make his supporters believe that they really are “winning.” He posted a picture of his approval rating among only republicans from a recent NBC News poll, saying, “Thank you very much, working hard!” While 88% of Republican voters is the highest level of approval for a modern Republican president, other than George W. Bush following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the current state of the Republican Party is doing much worse than Trump would have you believe.
As statistician Nate Silver recently pointed out, the percent of Americans who identify as Republican has fallen to 26%, the lowest in twenty-five years. Even if 88% of Republicans approve of Trump, given the lower level of party representation, this equates to only 23% of the voting population who are both republican and approve of Trump.
In order for the Democrats to take back the House of Representatives, they will need to flip at least 23 seats. A recent poll shows that there are 48 districts currently held by Republicans where the voters believe the Republicans are “more corrupt” than the Democrats. The poll also found that Independents are even more critical of the GOP, with 60% saying Republicans are “responsible for the majority of corruption taking place in Washington.”
Voters identifying as Independent will likely determine the outcome of the midterm elections. A separate Quinnipiac University poll found that the Democratic lead in the generic ballot has increased to twelve points over Republicans. An important takeaway is that 50% of Independents preferred Democrats, compared to only 33% preferring Republicans.
Things are even worse for Donald Trump when looking toward the 2020 presidential election. While there are many that believe he will have been removed from office by then, through either resignation or impeachment, even if he somehow stayed in office long enough to run again, his approval rating is below 40% in three important Midwest states. His current approval ratings in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota have fallen to 36, 36, and 38 percent, respectively. The current Congressional polling in those states for the upcoming midterms show Democrats leading by between 8 and 12 points. With just over three months until the midterms, it is important to remember that most sane Americans are not falling for Trump’s lies, but we must also vote to ensure a blue wave so that we can bring his illegitimate regime to an end.
I’m a ceramic engineer living in Central New York, avid sports fan but find myself more interested in politics lately.