What’s really going on now with Lauren Boebert and Democrat Adam Frisch in Colorado in 2024
When Democratic candidate Adam Frisch ran against Republican incumbent Lauren Boebert in 2022, he only lost by around five hundred votes. This was highly impressive, given that Colorado’s 3rd District leans seven points Republican. Now Frisch is running in that same district again in 2024, and he’s been vastly out-fundraising Boebert, even as Boebert has suffered worsening scandals. So now Boebert is moving to Colorado’s far more conservative 4th District for the 2024 election. What does it mean for each of them?
For starters, things probably just got a little bit harder for Adam Frisch in 2024 – but he can still win. It’ll somewhat depend on who his Republican opponent ends up being. The best case scenario for Frisch would be if it’s another right wing MAGA type like Boebert, which plays poorly in a mainstream district. The worst case scenario for Frisch would be if the Republicans nominate someone who’s moderate, or who can pretend to be moderate. But as I said, Frisch can still win. He just won’t have the bumbling Boebert making things easier for him.
As for Boebert, this is a risky move for her. Colorado’s 4th District is super far right and leans more than twenty points Republican. The Democratic Party has zero chance of winning that district, no matter who the candidates are. So if Boebert gets the Republican nomination in that district, she will win, and she will remain in the House. But Colorado Republicans are already labeling her a carpetbagger, and she may not survive the Republican primary race. So she could still lose her seat in all this.
So what can we do about all of it? We can’t do much about what goes on in the far right Colorado 4th District; the Republicans there will either elect Boebert or they won’t. But we can help make sure Democratic candidate Adam Frisch wins in the more moderate Colorado 3rd District. You can make that happen with a small dollar donation to his campaign, or by signing up for a phone banking shift on his website.
Keep in mind that the House majority is not decided by the highest profile House races with the biggest names. It’s decided by the House races that are the most competitive to begin with, in the districts where the Democrat-to-Republican ratio is close to 50-50. These are the races that you either win by a point or lose by a point – and they end up deciding the majority.
Go take a look at how the Cook Political Report rates the various 2024 House races. The only races that are projected to even have a chance of being competitive are the few dozen races in the four columns in the middle: Lean Democrat, Democratic Toss-up, Republican Toss-up, and Lean Republican. The other roughly 400 House races will simply not be competitive, because too high a percentage of the voters in those districts lean one way or the other. You’ll note that Democratic candidate Adam Frisch’s race in Colorado’s 3rd District is rated “Lean Republican,” which means Frisch can indeed compete and win.
