What November is REALLY going to look like

Congresswoman Suzan DelBene, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), is optimistic that we will reclaim the House in November. In support of her optimism is the $37.7 million raised by the DCCC in the first quarter of this year. This compares favorably with the lesser sum of $25.8 million raised by the RCCC.

DelBene cites the unexpected decision last June when the US Supreme Court upheld Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, by ruling that Alabama’s 2021 congressional map illegally diluted the voting power of Black Alabamians. This decision gives teeth to lawsuits filed by action groups against unfair redistricting of congressional districts (i.e. “gerrymandering”) in other states.

Republicans love gerrymandering. It’s the only way a party so deeply hated by a slim majority of Americans can stay in power. Gerrymandering gives the Republican House the razor-thin advantage they need to keep from becoming completely marginalised by a constituency that is becoming increasingly sick of the MAGA cult.

DelBene also cites SCOTUS’ repeal of Roe v Wade via the Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision — a hugely unpopular move with Americans of all parties. Many Republicans aren’t crazy about it either, but they are constrained by their fanatical evangelical base from openly opposing it. It would appear that SCOTUS is inadvertently assisting us with both hands.

Our chances of keeping the Senate majority are a little less secure. But three things make me cautiously optimistic.

First, again, is Dobbs. Whether they like it or not, Republicans are alone in being joined at the hip with Dobbs. And evangelical Republicans are still smarting from their overwhelming defeat of the State Constitutional amendment to outlaw abortions in Kansas. It could be a harbinger of even bigger losses to come.

Second, is the recent retirement announcement from the Senate of Mitch McConnell. We have already seen that when a much-disliked Republican leader retires, he is replaced by someone far worse. Think Kevin McCarthy’s replacement by Mike Johnson.

Say what you like about Mitch, and I could spend an entire afternoon recounting things I find despicable about the man, he was still a relatively moderating voice in many respects. He is despised by Donald Trump, and that tells most of the story.

But McConnell also kept the Senate from turning full-on MAGA like the House. Many independent voters and moderate Republicans were not happy about losing the House to MAGA. The ones who can still think clearly will want to keep the Senate from succumbing to the same disease. Some red-leaning states might therefore surprise us this November, not unlike how Kansas completely blew us away last year.

Third and final is MAGA itself. As I say, Americans are getting sick of MAGA this and MAGA that. We might lose West Virginia thanks to Joe Manchin’s retirement and we might not, but then again we might not. But somewhere out there is perhaps another Kansas or two that very well could surprise us.

In 2022 mine was a rare voice of midterm optimism for the midterms. It’s less than spectacular results in the House and disaster in the Senate for Republicans somewhat vindicated my optimism. I have an even better feeling for this November. And, of course, I am as certain as I ever have been that the President will win a second term, and with a Democratic House and Senate he will do amazing things. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.