WHAT IS GOING ON with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in Iowa?
You know how I feel about any one individual poll, especially this close to election day. Polls have been more and more inaccurate for years, and if anything they get even more inaccurate just before the election. All that said, one new poll has been released that’s such an earthquake, it can’t be ignore.
The Ann Selzer poll in Iowa has a history of being notoriously accurate. It was just released today, and it has Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump by three points in Iowa. This is, somehow, not a typo. This highly reputable poll has Kamala winning Iowa. This is a state where Trump won by eight points in 2020.
Let’s all take a step back and a deep breath and assign some qualifiers to this. As I said at the top, polling in general is less reliable than ever. And no, I don’t think this means Kamala is necessarily going to win Iowa. But here’s the thing. Let’s say hypothetically that this poll is off by five points, which would be a lot given its history. Even in such case, that would only put Trump by two in Iowa in the best case scenario for him. And if Trump only wins Iowa by two points, it’s almost impossible to imagine him winning in Wisconsin, or Michigan, or Pennsylvania, or really any swing state.
So even when you account for a large margin of error, this new poll is essentially telling us that Kamala is going to win every swing state and is going to compete in some red-leaning states. That is… a lot to chew on.
But this Iowa thing didn’t come out of nowhere. Remember a few weeks ago when two Republican-held House seats in Iowa were suddenly reclassified as toss-up races? The state has been trending in this direction for weeks. Kamala (supposedly) taking the lead in Iowa is merely the culmination of what we’ve been seeing in the state.
Speaking of Iowa, this new poll means that we must jump on the two competitive House races there. The Democratic candidates are Lanon Baccam and Christina Bohannan. Click on their names and it’ll take you to their official campaign sites. Do whatever you can to show them last minute support. Donate, phone bank, follow and retweet them on Twitter, whatever you can. Even if Kamala doesn’t win Iowa, we now know that these two House seats in Iowa are up for grabs – and two seats could decide the House majority.
Earlier in the week we saw a different poll that had Trump ahead by just three points in Ohio. Again, it’s just one poll, and it’s silly season. That said, if Trump were to win Ohio by just three points, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown – who’s more popular in his state than the rest of the Democratic Party is – would likely win reelection. So now’s the time to make a final push behind Sherrod Brown.
The bottom line is don’t start popping champagne yet. Buy a bottle if you want. But don’t dare open it. We still need to spend all day Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday getting more people to vote for Kamala Harris. Even if these latest polls are correct and she is going to win the election, we need it to be decisive. So let’s get out these final three days and run up the score.
