Vladimir Putin’s failed Trump experiment comes to a head in Ukraine
The kicker when it comes to Vladimir Putin’s failed Trump experiment is that it’s made it easier for him to invade Ukraine, and perhaps more necessary for him to invade Ukraine. Trump never could get Congress to ease existing U.S. sanctions against Russia, even when it was controlled by Republicans – and then Trump washed out after one term. Now Putin is trying to make up for the losses from his failed Trump experiment by trying to get something out of this aggression against Ukraine, whether it ends up being the theft of Ukraine, or other concessions in exchange for not stealing Ukraine.
Of course one of the few things Putin did get out of the Trump experiment was that Trump’s constant corrupt meddling in Ukraine made it more vulnerable to invasion. So Putin’s Trump experiment wasn’t a total failure. Putin is a savvy strategist, even if he is increasingly biting off more than he can chew. But if Putin’s Trump experiment had gone as planned, Trump would still be in office, the current Ukrainian leadership would have already been ousted, and Trump would be letting Putin have whatever he wants.
Instead Putin finds himself facing off against Joe Biden, who’s at least as skilled at playing chess as Putin is. This is not at all what Putin was hoping for when he began the Trump experiment. If he were confident in his ability to get away with taking Ukraine, he’d have done it eight years ago. But he’s now in such a hole, he has to take the risk of at least threatening to take Ukraine.
Perhaps Putin will take Ukraine and get away with it. Perhaps he’ll cut a deal that allows him to save face and walk away from Ukraine. Or perhaps this will backfire so badly on Putin that his own oligarchs get tired of his antics and decide to oust him in favor of a more stable leader. We’ll see. If anyone who thinks they know for certain what the outcome of this unstable situation is going to be, they’re being overconfident in their predictive abilities.
But if Vladimir Putin were as good at this kind of thing as some folks want us to think he is, Donald Trump would still be in the White House, and Putin would have had Ukraine in the bag a long time ago. There are limits to what any U.S. President can reasonably do in a situation like this. But Putin can’t be happy about having to face off against someone like Biden, who’s been doing this forever and has never been impressed with Putin’s games even a little bit. Biden is exactly who we want in the White House right now, and he’s exactly who Putin wishes he weren’t having to face off with right now.
