Vladimir Putin just made a huge mistake with Slovenia
It’s not clear if Putin intended to blow up the Slovenia consulate in Ukraine today. But Slovenia, a member of NATO, is vowing “consequences.” Putin has made a huge mistake – the kind he really couldn’t afford to make right now.
This does not mean we’re suddenly in World War III (that kind of hyperbolic doomsday hysteria is never helpful). This is nowhere near a NATO Article 5 situation. What it really does is give Slovenia and NATO nations an excuse to ramp up their military support for Ukraine, in a way that prevents Putin from being able to paint them as instigators.
Slovenia is not going to bomb Moscow just because its consulate in another country was blown up in a way that injured zero of its people. But with Slovenia having already announced yesterday that it was sending planes full of weapons to the Ukrainians, today’s incident does give Slovenia an excuse to dramatically ramp up what it’s providing the Ukrainians.
This also arguably gives Slovenia an opportunity to directly attack Russian forces in Ukraine, in a proportional response. However, it’s not clear if doing so would prompt Russia to attack Slovenia. In any case, Slovenia would surely consult with the rest of NATO before making any moves.
