Trump is starting to give up on this election – and yes, there’s a danger in that for us
Donald Trump is now canceling multiple campaign events, including some with friendly hosts, after a series of disastrously senile public appearances. He’s canceling an NBC News interview. He’s even canceling with the NRA. This comes after he canceled with 60 Minutes and CNBC, and blew off a town hall to listen to music.
This is about as close to a forfeit as you can get down the stretch in a presidential election. It’s one thing to disappear down the stretch if you’re ahead, because you’re trying to play it safe. But Trump is disappearing while behind, because he’s now displaying such severe dementia symptoms that he costs himself votes every time he appears in public.
This is, rather obviously, good news on the whole if you want Kamala Harris to win. But there’s also a danger here, and I want to talk about it today. This election is not over. Presidential general elections are never “over” no matter how non-competitive they end up being, for a series of reasons ranging from the Electoral College on down. Five points in the popular vote is considered a blowout, yet you can win the popular vote by four points and still lose the election. So presidential elections are always close, even when they’re not.
With eighteen days to go, we’re favored to win, we’re likely to win, but we can’t just sit back and assume we’re going to win. Are you willing to bet the fate of our democracy and our way of life on words like favored or likely? Me neither. So we can’t afford to sit back and put our feet up, no matter how badly Trump falls apart, or how thoroughly he quits on himself. We can’t take that bait and leave it to chance.
Kamala Harris said this week that while she’s ahead and she’s going to win, it’s going to be a margin of error election. She’s right. And I’d like to amend that a little and change it to margin of effort. In an election like this, the side that wins is the side that puts in the most work down the stretch. It’s cliche, but it keeps proving to be true. It’s how you win. Ask any candidate who’s ever won a competitive election and they’ll tell you the same.
If we can each do something according to our abilities and opportunities down the stretch, it’ll just about guarantee a win. Many of you are already doing the big stuff like phone banking, knocking on doors, making targeted small dollar donations, and sending postcards to voters. But if none of that is in your wheelhouse, you can still get more votes for your side. Identify three family members, friends, or coworkers who potentially lean your way politically but aren’t necessarily motivated to vote. Get them registered. Drive them to the polls. That way you’ve just delivered four votes for Kamala Harris, instead of just your own one vote. This is, again, how we win.
Democratic Senator Brian Schatz, who’s very savvy at these kinds of things, wrote this week that according to the internal polling he’s seen in the various races up and down the ballot, we’re looking at anything from a very good outcome to a somewhat bad outcome. So again, this is a margin of error – or margin of effort – election. Go here, put in your zip code, and find out what’s happening in your area down the stretch. You’ll be glad you did: go.kamalaharris.com
