Donald Trump just took an ugly blow
Just how hilariously slanted is the Rasmussen poll in Donald Trump’s favor? When professional analysts look at the polling averages, there’s always debate about whether to even include Rasmussen in the averages. So naturally, Trump loves to quote Rasmussen whenever it says his approval rating is high and every other poll says it’s low. But we may not be seeing Donald Trump quoting Rasmussen any time soon.
When the coronavirus crisis first exploded, Palmer Report cautioned everyone not to pay any attention to short term movement in his approval ratings. When a crisis is first unfolding, a lot of people think America’s best shot at surviving it is to say they support the President, even when they don’t. Donald Trump got a remarkably small crisis spike from the coronavirus, never getting above about 60% (George W. Bush temporarily spiked to around 90% after 9/11). Over the past week, Trump’s approval numbers have been coming back down, and are now firmly underwater. But what about Rasmussen?
The latest Rasmussen poll has Donald Trump at 43% approval and 56% disapproval. Even Trump’s favorite poll now says he’s nearly as hosed as any other poll. While you may be scratching your head and wondering what drugs these 43% of people might be on, the reality is that these numbers are way too low to get Trump reelected.
The key throughout the coronavirus crisis has been that even when Donald Trump’s approval rating was temporarily spiking a bit, he was just as far behind Joe Biden in the polls as ever. That means people were gritting their teeth and pretending they supported Trump in this crisis, while telling pollsters in the next breath that they were still voting for the other guy. Now Trump’s approval rating has collapsed to where it’s always been.
Trump will keep trying new schemes and antics between now and election day to try to get his numbers up and give himself a shot at reelection, which is why we must be vigilant and work hard to defeat him. But it’s important to understand that at no point has Trump even been in contention for November. These daily press briefings certainly aren’t helping Trump’s cause.
If you consider 40% to be effectively zero in presidential polling, and 60% to be effectively a hundred, the numbers start to make more sense. Donald Trump is in the low forties, which means he’s close to zero, which is disastrous for him. Joe Biden is at about fifty, which means he’s in good shape – particularly for a challenger who’s only been the nominee for a few days. The key is that we all have to work hard to make sure Biden stays ahead, by a large enough margin to overcome whatever antics Trump and the GOP might end up trying.
