This time it’s different.

| 12:01 pm EST December 26, 2019
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Here we go again. One vulnerable Republican Senator says she’s concerned – this time she’s saying she’s “disturbed” – about how Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell are conducting things. It’s tempting to think this will go the way it always has, which is that the Senator in question will end up falling in line like they always do. But this time around it’s actually a very different equation, because who wins and loses won’t come down to a vote count.

Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski is the one sounding the alarm this time, and she’s hurling harsh words at Mitch McConnell’s stated plan to hold a sham impeachment trial and automatic acquittal. It’s not that Murkowski is necessarily looking to convict Trump; she probably wants to acquit him. But she doesn’t want her next Democratic opponent in Alaska to be able to tag her with having participated in a sham trial. So she’s going to see how far she can push McConnell toward holding a more fair trial before they acquit Trump.

What’s the point, if the Republicans are just going to acquit him anyway? If people like Murkowski end up forcing McConnell to subpoena witnesses like Mick Mulvaney or John Bolton, and if some of these reluctant witnesses end up testifying, it could end up steering public opinion further in favor of impeachment, and further against Donald Trump, thus damaging his already-weak 2020 chances. If Senate Republicans then acquit him after a trial that makes clear how guilty he is, voters will likely end up punishing the Senate Republicans as well.

Mitch McConnell now has to try to strike a balance between giving Lisa Murkowski enough concessions to silence her before she does any more damage to his cause, without giving her so many concessions that the trial ends up damaging his cause. There’s no good way to thread that needle – and now McConnell has to find a way to satisfy Murkowski while also finding a way to satisfy Nancy Pelosi. This time around it isn’t about the final vote total. It’s about how much damage Trump and the Senate Republicans will do to themselves in the process of “winning” the impeachment vote.