This spells big trouble for Donald Trump

| 10:30 pm EDT July 28, 2020
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Presidential elections generally come down to the usual handful of swing states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio. It’s a bad sign for Donald Trump that he’s behind in the polls in every one of these states – some of them by fairly large margins. But the true ugliness for Trump lies elsewhere.

It’s one thing to be non-competitive in the swing states. It’s another thing to be in danger of losing solid red states. Yet we keep seeing numbers that increasingly suggest the state of Texas is in play. First it was just one poll, which can always turn out to be an outlier. But now poll after poll keeps saying the same thing.

We’re now at a point where the FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics polling averages both say that Texas is within one point of being tied. That means Texas is a toss-up state. This is further confirmed by the scattered reports that the Trump campaign is now spending big in Texas, in an attempt at fending off Joe Biden in the state. That’s because if Biden wins Texas, Trump will have no remaining Electoral College path whatsoever – and it won’t even be close.