This is just preposterous

| 6:00 pm EDT May 14, 2024
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We’re at a time in the race when polling isn’t really predictive of much of anything, and largely over the Trump bump that showed a tied race in a way that wasn’t really all that different from what things looked like at this time back in 2012. As things heat up, we’re seeing a number of mixed polls – ones that don’t look good for President Biden (like the NYT/Siena one that dropped on Monday) or the right-wing leaning pollsters that are clearly gaming the data. Obviously it’s the polling average that’s important, but there’s something fairly obvious in the latest NYT poll that everyone’s been ignoring.

Looking at the number of likely voters, things change up a bit, with President Biden having a slight lead in Michigan and virtual ties in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where the state Democratic Party tends to punch above its weight. The 13 point lead for Nevada is flat out preposterous (particularly showing an 8 point lead in Clark County, the one that essentially wins the state.) Nevada has traditionally been close (and hasn’t voted Republican in 20 years) and likely will be for the foreseeable future, so no one is leading by that much while the Rust Belt stays close. More importantly, however, the poll shows some pretty good news for the Senate candidates in all of those states, with Jacky Rosen in a tie and even Ruben Gallego with a comfortable lead in Arizona.

Based on the last three elections, ticket splitting between Republican and Democratic candidates is a rapidly dying practice, so we’re seeing pretty good numbers for Democratic senate candidates in a year when it’s a difficult climb for them to keep the Senate. Again, this is one poll that you can take as you like, but don’t get lost in the doom and gloom narrative you’re getting from pundits. These are going to be close races no matter what, so it’s up to us to do the work – volunteering, donating, driving up voter registration. We do that by Nov 5 and we will win. It’s that simple.