This is just getting started
In the nearly two days since the DOJ’s criminal indictment of Donald Trump was unsealed, there has been a remarkable lack of followup information surfacing about where any of this is headed next. And that’s to be expected from the DOJ’s side. Jack Smith said everything that he wanted to say in the indictment, and only held that brief press conference so the media wouldn’t spend every day asking why he hasn’t held a press conference. But even with so many questions answered within the text of the indictment, so many additional questions remain.
For instance, are there more charges coming against Trump in the classified documents case? What about all that recent reporting that Mark Meadows had testified that Trump instructed him to pack up boxes of classified documents on their way out of the White House? None of that made it into this indictment. If that testimony really happened, then there’s presumably a superseding indictment coming in the classified documents case with more charges.
For that matter, when is Jack Smith indicting Trump in his January 6th probe? Smith certainly already decided to indict Trump in that probe before he went to all the trouble of getting the court system to force former VP Mike Pence and other material witnesses to testify against Trump to the grand jury. By all accounts, Smith’s 1/6 probe is near the end but not quite there. Last minute followup subpoenas in that probe are going out the door to people like Steve Bannon, meaning the web of that massive 1/6 criminal plot is still being unraveled.
Once Smith does indict Trump in the 1/6 probe, he’ll presumably be indicting a whole lot of Trump’s co-conspirators as well. Keep in mind that not everyone who pumped a fist or gave a speech on January 6th is guilty of a provable crime that can actually lead to a conviction. But a whole lot of people, through very specific text messages and such, did criminally plot with Trump to overthrow the government that day. So while Smith’s classified documents probe only resulted in two people being indicted (Trump and Walt Nauta), Smith’s 1/6 probe should result in a dozen indictments or more. It’s going to be very big and very complex.
Then there is Jack Smith’s reported criminal probe into Trump for 2020-related wire fraud, Smith’s reported probe into Trump’s international financial entanglements, and so on. This could be the probe that just keeps going and going, for years on end, with more and more charges being filed against Trump and his co-conspirators as they’re put through trial after trial.
Of course none of that would actually happen if Trump were to somehow get himself reelected President. He would come in and shut down the entire probe, and Jack Smith would have ended up doing all this case-building for nothing. That’s why, as a practical matter, Smith was always going to indict Trump early enough on that it got to trial well before the 2024 election. That initial indictment was always going to consist of easily proven charges that would result in certain conviction. And they were always going to be the kind of straightforward charges that don’t lend themselves to being dragged out before trial.
The reason Smith was always going to do it this way was so that he could get a quick and easy conviction against Trump, and effetely knock him out of the 2024 race before it even truly gets heated up. Remember, it is not Smith’s job to decide the outcome of the election. But given that Trump is a criminal target who is going through the motions of “running” for the sole purpose of trying to stave off criminal prosecution, it makes it necessary for Smith to knock Trump out of the race before it gets heated up. Smith and the DOJ also have a responsibility to voters when it comes to taking Trump off the board early enough that voters who lean in that ideological direction can find a different candidate to nominate.
Of course that’s exactly what Jack Smith has done with this indictment. It’s a neat and tidy and straightforward case that’ll work its way through the criminal justice system quickly. It’s a “small” case in the sense that it’s just Trump and one co-conspirator, and doesn’t have a lot of moving parts. And yet it’s an overwhelming case in the sense that it includes Espionage Act charges, which can finish someone. It’s also a foolproof case in the sense that it includes charges like obstruction of justice and making false statements to federal investigators. Even if the main charges somehow fall through, those tacked-on charges will still guarantee at least a partial conviction, and a certain prison sentence. And no, it doesn’t matter who the judge might be in a case this bulletproof.
When it’s all said and done I think we’re going to look back on this indictment as Jack Smith’s way of quickly knocking Trump out of the political arena, so that Smith can take as much time as he needs in bringing the various other kinds of charges against Trump in the more complicated cases.
That said, I won’t be surprised if Smith indicts Trump for January 6th as soon as next month. Why do I say this? He’ll want to indict Trump (and others) on federal charges relating to January 6th before Fulton County DA Fani Willis brings her indictments. At this point she seems to be waiting for the federal charges to happen first, which is customary, so that she can structure her charges around them and avoid double jeopardy concerns. She’s very publicly picked the first half of August as her target date, and given the odds that she’s been coordinating this with the Feds, it suggests that Smith could bring his January 6th charges in July.
But even if that happens next month, I won’t be surprised if Jack Smith just keeps bringing more and more charges against Donald Trump and his various co-conspirators for years to come. Merrick Garland presumably didn’t bring in one of the world’s most renowned and aggressive prosecutors for nothing. There are still classified documents out there. Trump’s international financial ties, and their corrupt political implications, could take years to fully investigate.
But Jack Smith knows that for all of that to happen, he first has to convict Donald Trump on something quick yet serious, in order to lock Trump away before we even get to 2024. Logically speaking, that was always going to be Smith’s step one. And I think that’s how we’re going to look back on it.
