This is just bleak for Putin
One of the practical problems narcissists have is they think they are always right. When the narcissist in question has power and influence the damage done by their arrogance is proportionately amplified. Forget what some armchair military historians tell you, Adolf Hitler was an amateur who had no business conducting a world war. He would have failed eventually because he had no mechanism for hearing criticism, let alone for allowing it to be voiced. What he had at first was phenomenal luck. But that luck eventually ran out, as it inevitably does.
Like Hitler Vladimir Putin has no critical voices in his inner circle. Unlike Hitler Putin appears to have no luck at all. In a war that isn’t even 3 weeks old he has already lost 404 tanks, 1,279 armoured personnel carriers, 81 planes, 95 helicopters, 150 pieces of artillery, 64 rocket launchers, 3 ships, 640 vehicles, 60 fuel tanks, 9 drones, 36 anti-aircraft weapons and more than 13,500 troops. That is not a record of a successful invasion. It is not even a war he can win by attrition. Putin lacks the strength to go up against Ukraine and he lacks dissenting, cautionary voices qualified to warn him about his blunders.
The job of subduing a country of roughly 40 million people now falls to a force of fewer than 200,000 soldiers. Logistical support for Putin’s forces is as poor as its morale. Because they don’t understand the reasons for the war and are poorly paid, many of Putin’s troops lack the appetite to attack. Russian materiel and gasoline are ending up on the black market, sold by Putin’s own soldiers to supplement their meagre wages. Whatever successes Putin is having are Pyrrhic.
It’s a bleak picture for Putin, looking more and more like Hitler’s picture in 1943, or even 1944. It has softened Putin’s resolve to the point that he’s now willing to discuss more reasonable terms. The important thing above all is that Putin be allowed to save face, or appear to in any event. Anything less than that could lead to unparalleled disaster.
One question armchair and professional historians alike agree on is that had Adolf Hitler had nuclear weapons he would have used them. And because he was a psychopath he would have used them savagely and repeatedly. Nukes would have been the game changer he fantasised about in the bunker, replacing his too-little-too-late jet fighters as his secret means to victory. Of course, the important part of that hypothetical situation was that no one else had nuclear weapons. So Putin’s case is not the same.
There can be little doubt that Putin would use nuclear weapons if he was the only one possessing them. There remains a danger that he still might. The situation would have to become unbearable, a combination of forces that would enrage him beyond his ability to restrain himself. When dealing with a madman like Vladimir Putin, I don’t think anyone can predict with any degree of necessary accuracy at what point Putin’s breaking point might be. The fact remains we cannot afford to gamble. Too much is at stake.
Diplomatically, the situation between Russia and Ukraine is like a tension-filled defusion of a dangerous but unfamiliar bomb. No one really knows what will set it off, but sudden, violent action is probably not the answer. A slow and cautious diplomatic solution is undoubtedly the best way forward, with lots of opportunities given for Putin to save face. Slower internal forces could lead to an eventual coup d’etat, at which time the world can breathe a sigh of relief.
But at no point can that sigh be heartfelt and permanent until we remove nuclear weapons from the world stage once and for all time. That threat is a constant one, always in the background of Putin’s war. When nuclear weapons are involved, the real enemy is war itself. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.
Robert Harrington is an American expat living in Britain. He is a portrait painter.