THIS is how we win
We don’t win the midterms by saying “who are the worst House Republicans” and then blowing our resources on a futile attempt at unseating them even though they’re in far right districts where we can’t win. We win the midterms by focusing on races that are actually winnable.
What defines a winnable race? Start by taking every House district where the Republican candidate is an incumbent who won in 2020 by more than about 3-5 points, and cross them all off the list. Some of those red districts have solid democratic candidates, but they can’t win.
This isn’t pessimism, it’s just reality. There are 435 House races around the nation this year. The vast majority are either safely blue or safely red. The House majority is determined by perhaps 10% of those House races, in moderate / swing districts. That’s how you win.
“But I want to invest my time and money trying to unseat awful House Republicans in far right districts!” Then you don’t want to win the majority. Investing your resources into unwinnable races is how you lose. “But they’re all winnable if we try really hard!” No they’re not.
“But such and such Democratic candidate for the House has a lot of Twitter momentum, and some pundit made a video for them, and they’re going to win even though they’re running in a district where the Republicans won by 15 points last time!” No they’re not.
The House majority is determined by a few dozen races in swing districts where the winner will be determined by a point or two. Invest money and resources in those very close races and you’ll win them. Ignore them in favor of tilting at windmills, and you’ll lose the majority.
The House races that determine the majority are usually between candidates that don’t even have national name recognition. But they’re the tightest races in the most purple districts, so they’re the most easily swayed. Which is where we have to come in.
Our job as activists (people like me and you) is to look at the math, determine which House races are going to be the closest contests, and steer our resources to them. This means the most flippable Republican House seats AND the most vulnerable Democratic House seats.
“Such and such House Republican is scandal plagued and nationally despised, so that person is the most vulnerable, right?” No. Those types are usually in deep red districts, where the majority of voters will vote for the worst Republican over the best Democrat.
But these nationally despised, scandal plagued House Republicans are useful to us. The GOP refused to expel them. Which means we can use them against House Republicans who are seeking reelection in moderate / swing districts.
You want to make a video? Make it about a House Republican in a moderate district who failed to do anything about a traitor like Greene or an alleged pedophile like Gaetz. That resonates with the moderate voters in that moderate district, and helps flip it.
Republicans used this strategy to a T in 2020. They exaggerated “the squad” and then tied them to every House Democrat running in a moderate district. And it worked, because moderate voters hate any perceived extremism, left or right. Not only are we in prime position to use this same strategy in 2022, we don’t even have to exaggerate anything (nor should we anyway). Far right House Republicans have served themselves up on a silver platter. All we have to do is tie them to House Republicans running in moderate districts and we win.
The Democratic Party has spent the past year and a half begging all of you to understand how this works. They keep pushing Greene, Gaetz, Boebert, etc. out front, so we can tie them to House Republicans in swing districts. The messaging is right there. Let’s run with it.
