This is absurd beyond the pale
Even though we’re still a long way off from the 2024 presidential election cycle, candidates are already officially and unofficially entering the fray, and we’re seeing endless analysis of what their prospects might end up looking like. This early on, it’s fair for there to be a wide variety of takes. But just about every take I’ve read so far has one thing in common, and frankly it’s just batshit crazy.
In take after take about the 2024 presidential field, Donald Trump – who is being criminally indicted in three different jurisdictions – is instead portrayed as facing no criminal liability of any kind and therefore somehow magically available to participate in the 2024 election cycle. I’m not even sure I can come up with a way to describe how asinine this is, other than simply labeling it fiction, and for that matter willful and intentional fiction.
Imagine if some NFL quarterback were on the verge of being criminally indicted on serious felony charges in three different jurisdictions, and the entire sports media and pundit class decided to simply ignore this fact, and instead portray him as the frontrunner to win the next Super Bowl. Yes, there would be a small chance that this person could somehow be acquitted in all three felony trials and get back on the field before the next season. But even if you were going to take that hypothetical seriously, you’d still disclaim it as a mere hypothetical that’s facing serious roadblocks. You wouldn’t just pretend that the guy is facing zero criminal liability, right?
In reality, the sports media and pundit class wouldn’t pull such a stunt, because while sports audiences will argue endlessly about who’s the best and who’s going to win, they don’t tend to accept outright fictional analysis. Yet when it comes to politics, it’s somehow perfectly acceptable for the entire political media and pundit class to just pretend that a potential candidate who’s heading for three separate criminal trials is instead facing no criminal liability at all. For some reason the entire political media class is allowed to just make up outright fiction in the name of chasing ratings, and get away with it.
Of course there would have to be someone holding the political media and pundit class accountable for the fiction that it makes up. And simply put, that doesn’t ever happen in this industry. No matter how many real world developments make it obvious that Trump is being criminally indicted, it just doesn’t seem to penetrate.
Even the major news outlets that are giving grudging minimal coverage to the concrete developments in the criminal cases against Trump are still turning around and offering 2024 analysis that conveniently pretends Trump is fully in the clear. It’s just accepted by audiences that “2024” is some ethereal concept that cannot and will not in any way be penetrated by real world events. In this 2024 fantasy world that the media has created, it doesn’t matter that Trump is obviously going to prison. Why would any facts matter? It’s all bullshit anyway.
And to be clear, it is bullshit. We’re nearly two years away from the 2024 presidential election. You can look back at this same point in every modern presidential election cycle, and aside from the incumbent, rarely do the projected “frontrunners” end up being the frontrunners. No one expects this kind of analysis to be remotely correct, which means the people generating this analysis can just make up whatever they want. Pretend Nikki Haley is viable for 2024, simply because she’s controversial and therefore good for ratings? Sure. Pretend Mike Pence is viable for 2024, even though it would be difficult to find anyone outside of his family who would vote for him, just because he feeds the media a lot of insider stuff? Sure. Why not? Any 2024 presidential race analysis published in early 2023 is going to turn out wrong anyway, so they can just make up whatever suits them.
It’s always been this way, for at least as long as long as anyone can remember. Remember that one election cycle where the media told us early on that Rick Santorum was going to be a frontrunner? How about that election cycle where the media predicted that Rick Perry would be a frontrunner? Before the election cycle actually begins, the media hypes up certain real or potential candidates that it thinks will be good for ratings in the short term, without any regard for whether those candidates might actually be viable. Everyone is going to forget early 2023 analysis of the 2024 election by the time we get to 2024 anyway, right?
But then there’s Donald Trump, who has been so uniquely good for ratings that the media has spent years going to unique lengths to try to keep him relevant. That included having spent all of 2021 and 2022 insisting that Trump would somehow magically hand the Republican Party big gains in the midterms, when there was never any logic or data to suggest that such a thing was possible. And fresh off being exposed for having simply made up that narrative for ratings, the media is turning around and insisting that Trump is going to be a 2024 frontrunner regardless of how many prosecutors are busy ripping his existence to pieces.
I get why the media is still baselessly hyping Donald Trump as if he’s going to be a 2024 participant. And I get why so many among the public mindlessly go along with such nonsense when they hear it. But it’s still jarring to see it play out. Through endless repetition, the media has somehow convinced the majority of audience members that Trump’s three upcoming indictments and criminal trials are either imaginary, or will have all the impact of a mosquito bite on Trump’s 2024 chances.
It’s enough to make you half seriously wonder what would happen if Trump just happened to keel over tomorrow. Would the media still keep hyping him as a 2024 frontrunner? Would it pretend that Trump being deceased wouldn’t stand in the way of his availability as a candidate? That would be absurd beyond the pale. But it’s not much more absurd than pretending that a guy who’s on track to be put on three felony criminal trials and sent to prison before we even get to 2024, is somehow magically going to be available as a 2024 candidate.
