This is a complete joke
When a major data firm makes a shocking political prediction that’s based on a hilariously inaccurate premise, it’s sometimes difficult to tell if the firm really did screw up that badly, or if the firm did it on purpose to try to get attention. I won’t pretend to know the motivation for why Moody’s has released one of the most idiotically flawed election models of all time, but it sure is getting a lot of attention. I keep getting asked about it, so I’ll address it just this one, even though it doesn’t deserve the attention.
Moody’s is now predicting that Donald Trump will win reelection in 2020 in a landslide. That’s such a startling and scary premise, the prediction is getting widespread attention from the media and across social media. Sure, it doesn’t sound right, but what if it is right? Well, after having spent a good ten seconds analyzing what Moody’s is basing its model on, I can tell you with 100% certainty that this prediction is gibberish. Laugh out loud gibberish.
Moody’s acknowledges that its formula is based on the assumption that Donald Trump’s 2020 Democratic opponent will get “average nonincumbent turnout.” You see the problem here, right? Not only is this a laughably simplistic model, it’s also a nonsensical one that doesn’t apply to this or any other election. The polls show that Donald Trump is one of the most widely despised incumbent presidents in American history. The majority of Americans want him ousted before the election. That’s how much motivation there is to turn out and vote against him. Does anyone expect his 2020 opponent to merely get “average” turnout, as if this were any normal election?
This Moody’s prediction is the statistical equivalent of a drunk kindergartner scribbling in crayon. It’s complete crap. Could Donald Trump conceivably win in 2020? Anything is possible, and – as with any election – we should go into the race assuming that it’ll be a close one and that every last vote will matter. But this Moody’s model tells us literally nothing about the 2020 election. Stop sharing it. Stop talking about it. Put it in the trash and move on.
