Thirteen point swing for House Democrats in the midterms
How quickly is the political landscape shifting right now in this country? So quickly that even the experts are having a difficult time keeping up with it. With Roe having changed the entire political narrative, and Democrats putting their best foot forward at a time when the nation desperately needs them to, it’s now clear that the Democrats have a real opportunity to buck the historical trends and win the midterms.
If recent House special elections in upstate New York and Alaska weren’t enough to convince you, then consider this: the odds of the Democrats keeping the House have doubled in the past six weeks, per FiveThirtyEight. This still pegs the Democrats as the underdogs in the House. But there is still reason to believe that these numbers are soft, and that the House majority will end up being decided by the closest of margins. That’s where you come in. Yes, you.
If the four hundred-plus House races on the ballot in any given election cycle, only about 10% of them ever end up being particularly competitive; the other 90% of races are in districts that are too blue or too red to be competitive. Why is this good news? It means we can focus on just those 10% of highly competitive races – which can be decided by a tiny margin – and change the outcome simply by getting involved.
Here are the competitive House races we’re focused on. They’re split up into categories:
“Toss-up” means the race is on track to be decided by perhaps one point or less. These are the races where we can make the most difference, with even a small effort. Toss-up races are divided into “Toss-up (Democratic challenger)” and “Toss-up (Democratic incumbent)” – and both groups are equally important to retaining the House majority.
“Lean-R” means that if the election were held today, the Republican would be expected to win by a few points. With the political headwinds continuing to shift in the Democrats’ favor, we expect many of these “Lean-R” races to look more like toss-ups by November, so it’s important to get involved in them now.
“Lean-D” means that if the election were held today, the Democrat would be expected to win by a few points. These are races that we perhaps don’t have to worry about as much as the Toss-up and Lean-R races, but we’ve included the Lean-D races because the Republicans are trying to pick off the Lean-D seats.
So what can you do? If you have money, donate to these races. Many of them are lower profile, so even a small donation can make a big difference. If you have time, sign up to volunteer. They’re labeled by district, so you can pick the ones that are within driving distance. If you don’t live near any of these races, you can volunteer online from home. If you don’t have time or money to spare, you can help by sharing these candidate links on your Facebook and Twitter pages, so your followers with time or money will see it and contribute in their own way:
Toss-up races (Democratic challenger)
Annette Taddeo FL-27 (Florida): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Chris Deluzio PA-17 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Josh Riley NY-19 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jamie McLeod-Skinner OR-05 (Oregon): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Francis Conole NY-22 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Christy Smith CA-27 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Rudy Salas CA-22 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Mary Peltola (Alaska): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Greg Landsman OH-1 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Adam Gray CA-13 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Yadira Caraveo CO-08 (Colorado): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Eric Sorensen IL-17 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Emilia Sykes OH-13 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Tony Vargas NE-02 (Nebraska): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Wiley Nickel NC-13 (North Carolina): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Gabe Vasquez, NM-02 (New Mexico): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
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Toss-up races (Democratic incumbent)
Jared Golden ME-02 (Maine): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Frank Mrvan IN-01 (Indiana): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Elaine Luria VA-02 (Virginia): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Dan Kildee MI-08 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Matt Cartwright PA-08 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Kim Schrier WA-08 (Washington): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Sharice Davids KS-03 (Kansas): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Elissa Slotkin MI-07 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Angie Craig MN-02 (Minnesota): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Chris Pappas NH-01 (New Hampshire): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Dina Titus NV-01 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Susie Lee NV-03 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Steven Horsford NV-04 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Marcy Kaptur OH-09 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
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Lean-R races
Michelle Vallejo TX-15 (Texas): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Cindy Axne IA-03 (Iowa): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jevin Hodge AZ-01 (Arizona): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Tom Malinowski NJ-07 (New Jersey): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Will Rollins CA-41 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jay Chen CA-45 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Brad Pfaff WI-03 (Wisconsin): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Kirsten Engel AZ-06 (Arizona): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Bridget Fleming NY-01 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Susan Wild PA-07 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez WA-03 (Washington): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
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Lean-D races
Nikki Budzinski IL-13 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Katie Porter CA-47 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Josh Harder CA-09 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Sean Casten IL-06 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Pat Ryan NY-18 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Annie Kuster NH-02 (New Hampshire): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Sean Patrick Maloney NY-17 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Abigail Spanberger VA-07 (Virginia): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Robert Zimmerman NY-03 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jahana Hayes CT-05 (Connecticut): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Don Davis NC-01 (North Carolina): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Mike Levin CA-49 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Hillary Scholten MI-03 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
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About this list: The “volunteer” links are the volunteer page provided by the candidate’s official website. The “donate” links lead directly to the ActBlue donation page that the candidate has designated on his or her official website, meaning the money goes directly to the candidate. The Toss-up, Lean-R, and Lean-D rankings primarily come from Cook Political Report, which has had a strong track record with such predictions. The order of the candidates is random with each category, and is changed each time the list is republished, in an attempt at promoting them evenly. Broken or incorrect links? Email us.
