Things in Russia just took a turn for the bizarre
When there was a media blackout in Russia on Friday, people began assuming the worst. A few hours later, it was revealed that the pivotal Russian city of Rostov had fallen not to Ukrainians preparing a counteroffensive, but to Russian mercenaries – the Wagner Group – who actually were better prepared at fighting in Ukraine than the Russian Army itself.
The group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, quickly agreed to a ceasefire – provided that Vladimir Putin makes some drastic changes in the leadership of the Russian military. We’re still not sure as to why the agreement happened so quickly – and it’s unlikely that Prigozhin after giving a fiery rebuke to Putin’s speech would survive much longer, but he did make his flight to Belarus, where President Alexander Lukashenko has agreed to receive him in exile.
Where we go from here is anyone’s guess – as Prigozhin did himself no favors by folding so quickly – looking weak in the eyes of the rest of the Wagner Group by not carrying through with his march to Moscow, and there’s a pretty good possibility that he’ll be looking over his shoulder for however many years he has left – at least as long as Putin is in power.
Meanwhile, Putin managed to make himself look weak by appearing to give Prigozhin exactly what he wanted – a move he likely made because he isn’t yet sure how many people in military leadership roles are sympathetic to Prigozhin – and much of Putin’s job depends upon him not looking weak or backing down from a fight – meaning that this is far from over, with Wagner Group likely being an imminent threat for the foreseeable future.
James Sullivan is the assistant editor of Brain World Magazine and an advocate of science-based policy making