The three prongs of Donald Trump’s guilty verdict
The January 6th public hearings are playing on two levels at once. The first level is the court of public opinion, where Donald Trump is well on his way to being convicted. Most Americans say he should be criminally charged. Prominent right wingers are saying it’s time to cut him loose. And he’s talking about the desperation move of launching a phony 2024 campaign just to try to change the subject away from his ongoing downfall.
While this trial in the court of public opinion is helping to ensure that Trump has no political future, we’re also watching a de facto dress rehearsal play out for Trump’s now seemingly inevitable federal criminal trial. To be clear, the bar for getting a trial jury to convict Trump beyond a reasonable doubt is much higher than merely getting him convicted in the court of public opinion. But we’re now starting to see that bar being met.
There are going to be three prongs to getting Trump convicted at trial. The first prong is Cassidy Hutchinson’s testimony – which no one seems to be disputing – that Trump demanded the Secret Service let his armed supporters into his January 6th rally. The second prong, which happened in full public view, was when he instructed his armed supporters to march on the Capitol and told them he would meet them there.
The third prong involves proving that Trump intended to go to Capitol himself, which would mean that he intended to not only incite, but personally lead, an armed insurrection against the United States government. There is where there has been some vague, anonymous pushback in the form of someone “close to the Secret Service” telling NBC News that the two agents in the car with Trump were disputing Hutchinson’s version of the story. But on Friday evening, multiple unnamed Secret Service agents confirmed to CNN that Trump did lunge for the steering wheel and attempt to drive himself to the Capitol.
Assuming these agents are willing to identify themselves and testify, that should be enough to prove that Trump indeed intended to lead the insurrection himself. It’s also enough to make you wonder what the two agents who were in the car – who appear to have been less than forthcoming in their earlier closed door testimony to the January 6th Committee – will do now. If they’re smart, they’ll fess up, beg forgiveness, and try not to get themselves indicted for obstruction.
It’s important to keep in mind that even though Donald Trump is very obviously guilty, trial juries are instructed to only convict if they believe he’s guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. Every day, juries acquit people they believe are guilty, because they can’t be absolutely certain of that guilt.
It’s why the DOJ has to foolproof the criminal case against Donald Trump by piling on with so much overwhelming evidence that even the most reticent of juries will conclude there is no choice but to convict. The DOJ also typically brings an entire smorgasbord of charges against a defendant, so that even if the jury doesn’t understand the main charges, it’ll still convict on ancillary charges. But proving that Trump knowingly assembled an armed militia, instructed it to join him in marching on the Capitol, and intended to indeed join them, is how you get a conviction against Trump on the most serious charges such as seditious conspiracy.
