The thing everyone is missing about Donald Trump and the New York grand jury

| 12:01 pm EDT July 14, 2020
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Grand juries generally conduct their business in secret. In fact the only way we tend to find out they’re underway is if they issue a subpoena or some other legal demand, and the recipient goes public with it, or if someone spots it in a court filing. So it’s unusual that we even know that the New York grand jury targeting Donald Trump exists.

It’s even more odd that, despite the full and clear and indisputable existence of this grand jury, almost no one is talking about the one and only reason a grand jury is convened: to criminally indict the person or people being targeted. The mere fact that this New York grand jury exists, and is subpoenaing Trump’s tax returns, is proof that New York is in the process of indicting Trump on state-level criminal charges.

This isn’t wishful thinking. This isn’t optimism. As a statement of proven fact, Donald Trump is in the process of being criminally indicted. Grand juries can fail to return an indictment, but that’s extremely rare in a case like this. The grand jury merely has to conclude that there’s enough evidence to warrant a trial, and in financial crime cases, the evidence is right there on paper.

Even before this grand jury subpoenaed Donald Trump’s tax returns, there were various media reports confirming that the likes of Michael Cohen gave evidence against Trump to the prosecutors who convened the grand jury. In other words, whether they find anything in Trump’s taxes or not, he’s going to be indicted on the crimes that have already been well documented, such as mortgage fraud, insurance fraud, and campaign finance fraud.

We have no idea when New York prosecutors and the grand jury are planning to indict Donald Trump. It could be before or after the election. For all we know, the grand jury may have already indicted Trump, and it’s still under seal. After all, the DOJ memo about not indicting a sitting President only applies to federal charges.

Questions abound about what’s really going on with that New York grand jury. But we know it’s been ongoing since at least last year, we know it’s found cause to subpoena Trump’s financial records, and it’s very likely Trump is going to be criminally indicted on state charges. Donald Trump is going to be indicted, arrested, and put on trial – and yet even as everyone focuses so intently on this grand jury’s Supreme Court victory, no one is talking about what this really means: Trump is going to prison if he loses the election.