The Supreme Court has declined to take up the Donald Trump case. Here’s what happens now.
When Jack Smith asked the U.S. Supreme Court to swiftly rule on Donald Trump’s claim of presidential immunity, I explained why it was a win for Smith either way. Either the Supreme Court would quickly rule against Trump, or it would decline to take up the case at all. Now the latter has happened.
The most likely outcome from here is that the U.S. Court of Appeals will rule against Trump in about three weeks. Then Trump will ask the Supreme Court to overturn it, and the Supreme Court will either once again decline to take up the case, or swiftly rule against Trump. Then Trump’s trial will take place pretty much in the timeframe that it was always going to take place, in early 2024.
Of course we’re already seeing metric tons of doomsday hysteria about today’s ruling. The New York Times and others have been quick to spin this as a major victory for Trump, and to suggest that his trial will now take place after the election. But for this to happen the Supreme Court would need to wait for the appeals court ruling, then take up the appeal, pause the trial, and never get around to ruling on the appeal. This is not a likely or even a realistic scenario. So this narrative about Trump’s trial being delayed is nonsense.
But we’re nonetheless going to hear doomsday hysteria about this ruling through the rest of the holidays. Even after the appeals court rules against Trump in mid-January, we’ll still hear how it doesn’t matter. And then when the Supreme Court declines to intervene on Trump’s behalf, and his trial starts on time, the media will act like it’s some shocking twist that no one could have seen coming. But we’ve all seen this movie by now.
