The real reason Pete Buttigieg is dropping out
Pete Buttigieg is dropping out of the 2020 Democratic primary race, according to a new report this evening from the New York Times. This comes after Buttigieg’s campaign let it be known this morning that he was intending to stay in the race. So what’s changed? It’s surely one of two things.
The first could be that Buttigieg simply took another look at how poorly he did in South Carolina last night, and realized he’d do roughly as poorly with black voters in upcoming Super Tuesday states. The second possibility could be that he had some kind of long conversation with Joe Biden today about making sure erratic extremist Bernie Sanders doesn’t get the nomination. Those details will surely end up surfacing after Pete makes his announcement. But for now, the impact on the election is fairly clear.
There’s no way of knowing if Buttigieg will endorse Biden today, or if he’ll just let the chips fall where they may. But either way, most of Buttigieg’s votes will shift to Biden, because Biden is the only mainstream Democratic candidate with momentum and a real shot. Bloomberg, Klobuchar, and Warren will likely pick up some of Pete’s votes. Sanders will probably pick up very few of them. In other words this helps Biden and hurts Sanders. The question is by how much or little.
One key thing to watch is how the polls in California realign with Buttigieg out of the running. Sanders will win the state. But if Biden picks up most of Buttigieg’s voters, he’ll climb above the fifteen percent delegate threshold in California, thus ensuring that Sanders picks up a lot fewer delegates in the state than he otherwise would have.
It’s also important to keep in mind that Pete Buttigieg is still going to be on the ballot in these Super Tuesday states. They’re already printed, and there’s no changing them. Most of his supporters will certainly hear between now and Tuesday that he’s dropped out. But unless he gives them guidance by making an endorsement, some of them could still vote for him for sentimental reasons – which would be a waste, considering Pete’s supporters could vote for Biden and help make sure he gets the nomination over Sanders.
This leads to the question of whether Amy Klobuchar will also drop out before Super Tuesday. But if she remains in the race for a bit longer, she could win her home state of Minnesota, thus ensuring that Sanders doesn’t win it. Similarly, if Elizabeth Warren remains in the race through Tuesday, she could reach the fifteen percent threshold in California, thus taking more delegates away from Sanders. We’re likely heading to a brokered convention, so math is key.
