The real reason Kamala Harris is going to Texas

| 9:09 am EDT October 23, 2024
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I’ve said all along that if you really want to know which states the presidential candidates think are the most important and the most competitive, look at where they’re spending their time and resources. That tells you everything you need to know – especially down the stretch. Now with just two weeks left in the election, Kamala Harris is holding a rally in… Texas? What’s going on here?

Campaigns and political parties have access to the kind of detailed internal polling that we don’t get to see. So they have a better sense of precisely where each state stands than we do. But given that the public polling for Texas in the presidential race is still not all that competitive, it’s unlikely that Harris’ internal polling has Texas being truly in play for her.

It’s more likely that Harris is going to Texas in order to try to help put Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred over the top, in order to try to make sure that Harris ends up with a Senate majority if she becomes President. Public polling has Allred within as little as a point or two of winning that race, and Harris must think she can help put Allred over the top by boosting Democratic turnout in the state.

Here’s the thing. The notion that Kamala Harris would spend one of her final fourteen days trying to win a Senate race is a pretty darn good sign that she’s seeing favorable internal numbers in the swing states. If things are looking bad for you in the swing states down the stretch, you can’t afford to run off and chase some Senate seat. So I’m going to take this as a sign that Kamala likes what she’s seeing with her internals in the swing states.

That said, now is not a time for us to assume the win and put our feet up. Kamala Harris is still counting on us to cover that last mile of ground and get people registered to vote and get them to the polls. Remember, the larger margin she wins by, the more quickly and decisively the election will be called. So let’s try to run up the score. But let’s also take this whole thing as good news.