The point of no return

| 5:14 pm EDT July 9, 2020
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Even as his numbers plummet to the point of no return, “president” Donald Trump still thinks everything is about him. His fear tactics have not worked one bit, but that does not stop him from continuing to use them. Trump continues to warn that if he is not reelected, the stock market will “disintegrate.” In direct contrast to Trump’s assertions, CNN reported that not only is Trump trailing Biden miserably in the polls, but the stock market continues to climb out of its hole.

Trump brazenly tweeted: “If you want your 401ks and stocks, which are getting closer to an all time high (NASDAQ is already there), to disintegrate and disappear, vote for the Radical Left Do Nothing Democrats and Corrupt Joe Biden.” Trump really has a lot of nerve. His descriptions of others describe him better. Perhaps we can start “Do Nothing Donald” trending on Twitter, as that best describes the bulk of Trump’s “presidency.” The funny thing is that Wall Street sees nothing of which Trump speaks.

CNN reported that the S&P 500 just concluded its longest winning streak since December while the Nasdaq has gone up as much as 52% since March. Yet, Joe Biden is leading in the polls. JPMorgan Chase has predicted that a blue wave will boost stocks. What is JPMorgan seeing that Trump does not? CNN shows that investors believe that Joe Biden will temper policies relating to taxes on the rich and corporations because he will be inheriting an incredibly weak economy, even worse than the economy inherited by President Obama.

Chris Krueger, a policy analyst at Cowen’s Washington Research Group, wrote to his clients that Biden “has a 61% chance of winning the election.” Krueger bases that number on a prediction platform called PredictIt, which shows Biden up 61% from 44% just two months ago. The platform also shows Biden far ahead in the electoral college. PredictIt is a project of Victoria University of Wellington, and it makes predictions based on market forecasts. If Krueger and PredictIt are correct, “president” Trump is once again wrong about his impact on markets, not that anyone should be surprised. Trump has little impact on anything these days that is not negative.

This is all predictions, of course, but so are the polls. Predictions, like polls, are based on trends and how markets have behaved in the past. Biden is proposing raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, which can certainly have an impact on the market, and he also promises to reverse Trump’s policies regarding fossil fuels as we move toward a greener world. While jobs will be lost if fossil fuels companies go under, Biden has promised new, better paying jobs in the new green society. We are basically looking at a potential trade-off, which might initially impact the market, but as jobs are created and we all adapt to a green society, they will go back up. That is the nature of the market. It is a series of ups and downs, and one person—especially Donald Trump—will have no impact on that whatsoever.