The Kamala Harris DNC “bump”
Presidential nominees typically see a bump in the polling averages of up to three points after their respective national conventions. But those bumps often tend to be temporary and can disappear. So is Kamala Harris going to get a “bump” coming out of the Democratic National Convention?
We have to start off by acknowledging that 2024 is in many ways not a typical election. For instance Donald Trump didn’t get a bump from his convention at all – and that was when he was still running against President Biden. Trump is simply unpopular to begin with, and his convention and running mate pick and acceptance speech were a disaster, so none of it helped him.
Since that time Kamala Harris entered the race and immediately began climbing in the polls. While that growth has slowed down, Harris is still climbing in the polls. So what does a “bump” look like when you’re already climbing? If Harris goes up another two points over the next week or two, is that the result of the convention, or is that part of her ongoing arc? There’s really no way to know.
In that sense the usual question of whether she’ll get a convention “bump” isn’t necessarily the right question. We don’t know how Kamala Harris is going to continue climbing in the polls or what her ceiling is. I think the real question is whether the convention gives her enough momentum to continue climbing in the polls for longer than she otherwise would have.
Of course polls are only one metric of who’s winning. If you want to know whether her popularity is going to continue to grow over these final eighty days, I suggest tracking the number of new volunteer signups during and after the convention. The more people who are willing to keep pounding the pavement for Harris, the more her numbers are likely to climb. You can sign up to volunteer for Kamala Harris here.
