The greatest danger
Filmmaker Micheal Moore made something of a name for himself in the world of people who otherwise didn’t previously think much about (or of) him, when he predicted a Trump win in the 2016 presidential race. So he’s decided to try it again. Moore predicts Trump is going to win in November. After all, how better to gain a reputation as a latter day Nostradamus if he turns out to be right?
There’s just one problem with Mr Moore’s purported gift for prognostication. If you examine his track record, in the last three elections of 2012, 2016 and 2020, he’s been right only once. About what you’d expect from three tosses of a coin. So what’s really going on?
There’s a subtlety here. The truth of the matter is Michael Moore was actually wrong — every single time. That’s right, including in 2016. He didn’t actually “predict” anything, not the election of 2016, or any other election. He guessed, and then he crossed his fingers.
In 2016 he was “right” by pure accident. For one thing, in his prediction of the 2016 contest, Moore didn’t know about the coming infamous Comey letter. He didn’t know the full degree of Trump’s catch and kill collusion with the National Inquirer. He didn’t know the extent of Russian interference. He didn’t know a billion other factors. He didn’t, in short, have enough information to predict anything.
He relied on the oldest trick in the book of phonies and self-proclaimed psychics, one used by Nostradamus himself. Nobody will remember if they’re wrong, everybody will remember if they’re right, particularly when they predict a longshot.
The future is determined by the mathematics of chaos. There are a trillion variables that are simply beyond most computers to track, let alone human beings. In large events like the weather and presidential elections, the handwriting is seldom firmly on the wall.
This time the handwriting seems pretty clear. As it was in 1972 and 1984, the outcome of the election of 2024 looks good for us. It looks like a Biden win. That doesn’t keep me from being very nervous, however.
If you’re nervous with me, that’s a good thing. It will keep you from being overly complacent. It will keep you fighting right up until Der Tag. Remember what general George Patton said in December of 1944: We can still lose this war.
But there is a greater danger, a danger most people seldom consider. This isn’t just a race for America’s survival, it’s a race for the world’s survival. We cannot allow MAGA Republicans to take control, not in 2024, not in 2028, not in 2032, not ever. We cannot survive a MAGA Republican administration as a species. We don’t have time.
If we ever permit a MAGA Republican victory, that will mean the effective end of the world’s fight against global warming. The world needs America in that fight, and MAGA will see us out of that fight. They will gleefully and spitefully reverse every advance we’ve made so far and plunge us back into the darkness of coal, fossil fuels and runaway profiteering by greedy corporations.
I have every hope and confidence that we will win in November. But I cannot say that with certainty. What I can say is, a November victory will not be our final victory. We may never have a final victory in our lifetimes. We have to continue the contest after November. We aren’t just in this for the battle, we are in it for the duration. The 2024 election isn’t only a competition for the soul of American democracy, it’s a contest for the survival of the whole world. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.
Robert Harrington is an American expat living in Britain. He is a portrait painter.