The great reset
The media is still insisting that President Biden’s viability is gone, even while hyping laughably fictional stories about him being replaced on the ticket. But back in the real world, post-debate polling thus far suggests that nothing has changed as a result of the debate. Biden, who was sick, performed well below his usual standards. Trump, curiously, performed well above his usual senile standards. But that merely left them both coming off as mediocre, which means no minds were changed. So now what?
Keep in mind that at no point during this entire election cycle has either candidate been ahead of the other by more than the margin of error. This means it’s essentially been a tie race all along – if you believe the polls, and there’s plenty of reason not to. Democrats have outperformed their poll numbers in nearly every election over the past three years, so take that for what it’s worth.
But let’s say this election is roughly tied. Now that the first debate has had no real impact on the state of the race, we’re looking at a reset. We’re now at a new baseline, and the things that happen next are going to be important.
For instance, within the next hour we’ll likely finally get a Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s immunity claim, which could open the door for Trump to go on federal criminal trial in Washington DC (Judge Chutkan) before the election. Regardless of what happens on that front, Trump is already set for a sentencing hearing in New York in ten days – and that could come with a prison sentence. Even if Trump is able to delay his prison sentence on appeal, just being sentenced to prison could be a bodyblow for his viability.
Meanwhile Joe Biden has some more cleanup work to do. Look for him to go out and do more public events like his Waffle House appearance, in order to counter the media’s ongoing hysteria about his fitness. Of course the media might decide to simply ignore such events so that it can continue with its ratings-driven false narratives about him, in which case Biden might need to do a series of nationally televised town halls. Biden has always liked to pick his spots for maximum impact, and he’s surely working on picking those spots as we speak.
In the meantime let’s hit the reset button in this election and take it for what it is. The race is basically tied in the polls, even as the polls have become less reliable than ever. The media is working full time against Biden (which was always going to be the case), even as Trump’s criminal troubles (and his own mouth) are working full time against Trump.
For our part, it’s time for us to roll up our sleeves and get involved. The Biden 2024 campaign has seen record fundraising over the weekend. Are you able to contribute to that? If not, are you able to carve out a weekend to phone bank, knock on doors, send postcards, and help register people to vote? If you don’t have the time or money, are you willing to help amplify Biden’s messaging (and the Democrats’ messaging) on social media? Find your role, and let’s go win this together.
