The gameplan from here
Now that VP Kamala Harris is the presumptive 2024 Democratic nominee for President, what happens next? What are we about to see happen? This is a unique and unprecedented situation. But here’s what I expect may happen now.
First, I think we can throw out all the existing Kamala vs Trump polling. That was all conducted under a hypothetical that many Democrats were hoping wouldn’t happen. Over the next few days we’ll see new polls conducted that measure Kamala vs Trump now that it’s the actual matchup. Given the popularity and momentum that Kamala has out of the gate, I expect that she’ll likely poll ahead of Trump by a few points before the week is over.
Such a lead would be crucial, because it would force Trump to go on offense. Trump has been doing relatively few rallies of late, and almost no mainstream media interviews. But if he finds himself behind Kamala Harris in the polls, he’ll have to start putting himself out there more – and that’s good for us. Trump is now the senile old man in the race who’s lost a step. The more he goes out there and talks about sharks and batteries and Hannibal Lecter and gets everyone confused for each other, the more it’ll hurt him with persuadable voters.
The ideal scenario will be if Kamala pulls far enough ahead in the polls (three points would do it) that Trump feels compelled to go ahead and debate her. He obviously doesn’t want to have to do that, and he’s already trying to get out of it by demanding that the next debate be hosted by Fox News. But if Trump is behind in the polls, he won’t have any leverage for making any demands about the debate. He’ll just have to show up and do it – and it’ll likely go poorly for him.
Right now this is all about momentum for Kamala Harris. How much money can she raise this week? How many feel good stories will the media do about her ascendant candidacy? Can she pull ahead of Trump out of the gate? If so, then she’ll have the upper hand heading into the crucial final hundred days of the election. Donate to Palmer Report via PayPal or GoFundMe.
