The extremism feedback loop
Imagine a Congress full of the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene, Jim Jordan and Matt Gaetz. After the 2022 midterms you might no longer have to imagine it. The trend toward extremism in the United States Congress could get worse, and it could get worse for a reason.
That reason is a lack of political incumbency. More and more members of Congress are either retiring or running for re-election in newly formed districts, leaving the possibility open for more radical Republican candidates to fill empty seats.
“Open seats are the biggest accelerant of extremism” said Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report, “[They are] breeding grounds for ideological warfare.” But open seats are no longer the only way for radical Republicans to win elections. The more outrageously partisan the candidate the more coverage they get on TV, on the internet and in the printed media. That leads to more donations and a greater likelihood for winning. This tends to make radicalism not a bug but a feature.
It used to be that incumbents had about a 90% chance of winning re-election. But this new feedback loop could change all that. Radical Republicans could start unseating incumbents at an accelerated rate. Once that happens the more stolid and less radical Republican members of Congress will have to shift to the right just to survive. Or they’ll have to quit.
If you think that could never happen, think again. Don’t forget that it wasn’t so very long ago that most Republicans in Congress opposed the candidacy of Donald Trump. Eventually conversion to Trumpism became the only way for Republicans to survive.
There may come a day when being “merely” a Trumpist might not be enough. Those Republicans who refuse to change will do what Republicans who couldn’t bear to sell their souls to Donald Trump did back in the good old days: they’ll quit and become completely forgotten. Just like old what’s-his-name.
What can we do? We have to stay active, become passionate, donate and vote. Some of you need to run for Congress yourselves. That’s right, you. The future of the United States of America hangs in the balance. And if America goes down the tubes so does the rest of the world.
As Thich Nhat Hanh put it, “Enlightenment is when a wave realizes it’s an ocean.” We have to be an ocean of resistance to this new radicalism or America is doomed. I’ll say it again, failure is not an option. And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.
Robert Harrington is an American expat living in Britain. He is a portrait painter.