The Democrats’ odds of keeping the Senate in 2024 just went up
The Democrats are facing a highly unbalanced Senate map in 2024 with no realistic pickup opportunities (the 2026 map is more favorable). On top of it, Joe Manchin’s retirement means the West Virginia Senate seat is a goner. The best the Democrats can do in 2024 is to keep their other fifty existing seats, which is a majority when you also have the presidency. There’s good news on that front.
Of the seven competitive Senate seats that the Democrats have to keep in 2024, they’re now favored in six of them. The bad news: Democratic Senator Jon Tester in Montana is looking at about a 50-50 chance of reelection. That means the Democrats only have a 50-50 chance of keeping the Senate, which isn’t good enough. But that just changed.
Montana just certified that there will be an abortion rights initiative on the 2024 ballot. In every recent instance where a state has put an abortion rights initiative on the ballot, it’s not only done well, it’s helped the Democratic candidates who were on that same ballot. This is true in blue states and red states alike.
So Jon Tester’s reelection prospects in Montana just got a little better, thanks to the state’s abortion initiative. It’s still going to be a close race. We still need to donate and volunteer for Jon Tester. But we may have just gained the upper hand in this fight.
