The Democratic Party just outperformed its poll numbers AGAIN
It’s been a recurring theme for a few years now. The Democratic Party and its candidates have outperformed their poll numbers in the 2022 midterm election cycle, the 2023 off-year election cycle, and every special election that’s in the meantime.
Now that President Joe Biden is seeking reelection in a 2024 Democratic primary race where he’s up against two basically fake Democrats in Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson, Biden (the real Democrat) is once again outperforming his poll numbers. Polling said that Biden would get just 69% of the vote in this weekend’s South Carolina Democratic primary, yet Biden ended up getting around 96% of the vote.
Congressman Ted Lieu said it best:
In every election since the reversal of Roe v. Wade, Democrats have over performed.
I’ve said this before and I will say it again: Democrats will flip the House and Biden will win the White House, and it won’t be close. https://t.co/55bDbvhzun
— Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) February 4, 2024
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Will this trend translate to the 2024 general election? Yes, probably. Does this mean Biden and the Democrats will automatically win? Of course not. But it does mean that the current 2024 general election polls, which have Biden and Trump roughly tied, point to Biden having the advantage. If you’re tied in the polls, and your side always outperforms its poll numbers, it means you’re on track to win.
Keep in mind that one big reason why the Democrats keep outperforming is that we (meaning us and you) keep putting in the kind of work that allows the Democrats to go out and remind voters that they are indeed the better option. Your volunteer shifts, phone banking, and small dollar donations really do make the difference – and they’ll make the difference again in 2024.
In the meantime, if we’re going to take the polls seriously at all, we at least have to factor in the reality that Biden and the Democrats keep outperforming the polls. And then we have to roll up our sleeves in 2024 and help make sure that Biden and the Democrats once again outperform the polls.
