The dam is already breaking

| 7:09 pm EST January 6, 2020
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John Bolton knew what he was doing when he announced today that he’s finally willing to testify in the impeachment of Donald Trump. Certain Republican Senators are afraid that if they acquit Trump after a sham trial, voters will take it out on them when they’re up for reelection. Now they can push for Bolton to testify, thus covering their own backsides, and however it plays out for Trump is his problem.

Sure enough, it’s taken Republican Senator Mitt Romney all of a few minutes to be the first to seize on the opportunity. He announced this evening that “I’d like to hear what [Bolton] has to say” and that “what’s important is that we hear from him.” So there it is. Romney’s words aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on, of course. But just by saying this – even if he takes it back later – he’s handed the Democrats significant leverage.

Mitch McConnell, who cares infinitely more about retaining his own position of power than he does about protecting Donald Trump, will end up running the impeachment trial in whatever way he thinks gives him the best chance of not losing the Senate. So if Republican Senators like Romney start pushing him to subpoena John Bolton, he’ll likely end up doing it. Again, McConnell isn’t a wizard with a magic wand who can just make anything happen that he wants. He’s just trying to figure out how to survive this mess.

One key thing to watch is the reaction from Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski. She already weakened Mitch McConnell’s position a week and a half ago when she called him out for bragging about how he was going to run a sham trial. If Murkowski joins Romney in calling for John Bolton to testify, it’ll go a long way toward forcing McConnell’s hand. If Bolton does testify, McConnell would then have to look at the resulting impeachment poll numbers before deciding whether to strategically oust Trump ahead of 2020.