The criminal charges against Donald Trump in Manhattan are more severe than we initially knew

I must admit I was shocked down to my toes when I learned (according to CNN) that Donald Trump’s sealed indictment contains 34 counts. It was then, not when I first learned that he’d been indicted, that I seriously began to entertain that most delicious of hopes: Donald John Trump, the failed former president of the United States, is going to prison.

Thirty-four is a staggering number of counts. To be fair, not all of those counts will necessarily be felonies. But even so, that’s a number that almost screams “plea bargain.” For Trump’s defense team to face down 34 counts means some future jury is going to have to conduct a guilty/not guilty vote 34 times. Every one of those votes will breathlessly hold the prospect of Donald Trump’s future freedom in prospect.

By comparison, Trump’s former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen, the other defendant in this and similar matters, faced a five count indictment. Cohen spent three years in prison. But that was federal prison and Trump (so far) only faces penalties within the jurisdiction of the State of New York.

But 34 is nearly seven times 5, and if the calculus is the same between charges in New York State and charges at the federal level, that could suggest that Trump will get something on the order of 20 years in prison, just from the New York State charges alone.

Whatever the case, it’s a frightening number of counts, and people facing that many counts tend to go to jail for a substantially long period of time. Donald Trump turns 76 in June, which means if he survives long enough to be sentenced, he could be 77 or 78 by then. If Trump lives as long as his father, any jail time greater than 16 or so years will mean a life sentence.

But Trump’s father Fred Trump took much better care of himself than Donald. And he survived to age 93 in the lap of extreme luxury. Donald Trump will be in prison. Statistics show that people in prison have much shorter life spans. So Trump will almost certainly die there. Besides, the New York State charges are probably only the beginning of his criminal woes. Dare I say it? Orange is about to become the new orange.

So what will Trump and his lawyers do? Once they see the specifications of the charges together with the State’s case, I think a plea bargain could be on the table. One very likely bargaining chip might be that Trump stays out of public life and public office. Whether or not Alvin Bragg agrees to a plea deal is of course up to him and his staff. We shall have to see about all that.

Trump’s team may ask for zero prison time, or an ankle bracelet and incarceration at home. I sense that he’s not going to get anything like a deal like that, but we will have to see. In any case, a plea bargain means a tacit admission of guilt, and narcissists like Trump seldom admit guilt, even tacitly. Again, we’ll see.

There is one thing that I would like to take a moment to mention, brothers and sisters. Alvin Bragg, Letitia James and Fani Willis are the state-level prosecutors who hold Donald Trump’s future freedom in the palms of their hands. I am gratified to notice that they are all people of color, and two of them are women!

I leave you with the words of Yusuf Abdus Salaam. Mr Salaam was one of the so-called “Central Park 5” who was unjustly accused of the assault and rape of Trisha Meili, a white woman in Central Park in Manhattan, on April 19, 1989.

After doing prison time, Salaam and the other four were exonerated by DNA and a confession by the real murderer. Around the time they were falsely convicted, Donald Trump took out a full page ad in the New York Times calling for the execution of all five men. Trump never apologised, not even after he learned they were found innocent, not even when he was given the opportunity to do so.

Mr. Salaam recently tweeted the following: “For those asking about my statement on the indictment of Donald Trump – who never said sorry for calling for my execution – here it is: Karma.” And, as ever, ladies and gentlemen, brothers and sisters, comrades and friends, stay safe.