The biggest question in all of this

The most pressing question in these Trump criminal probes continues to be why the DOJ and the Fulton County DA have each skipped over Mark Meadows while targeting the Trump world people around Meadows who are in the same boat.

The DOJ indicted Bannon and Navarro for contempt of Congress, but declined to indict Meadows on that same charge, even though the DOJ has since stated its view in a court filing that the congressional subpoena of Meadows was 100% valid.

The DOJ is also carrying out search and seizure warrants against top Trump people like Eastman and Clark, in a clear attempt at obtaining their criminal communications with Trump. But there have been no known DOJ warrants against Meadows.

The Fulton County DA has reportedly sent subpoenas or target letters to every Trump associate big and small who was involved in the Georgia election plot, except for Mark Meadows.

The two most likely explanations: 1) Both probes see Meadows as a very top level criminal target alongside Trump, and both probes are waiting to formally target Meadows until they’ve finished moving up the chain. 2) Meadows is cooperating with both probes.

Other explanations are being tossed around online but don’t hold water. Meadows is not sitting on a secret pardon. Legal experts have explained why any pardon kept secret this long wouldn’t be valid. And Trump couldn’t have pardoned Meadows at the state level in Georgia anyway.

Nor would the DOJ and Fulton County DA both be deferring to North Carolina prosecutors when it comes to Meadows. All he did there was vote in the wrong state. Not as serious as the charges he’s facing in Georgia, or at the federal level.

Notably, it’s been reported that Meadows tried tampering with Cassidy Hutchinson around the time of her second closed door deposition (out of four total). So he presumably hadn’t flipped by that time. But that was awhile ago.

Getting caught tampering can often be what pushes someone to finally cut a cooperation deal. They have hope they’ll beat the rap on the underlying charges, but they know they’ll still go to prison for tampering, so they give up and flip on the next person up the chain.

We will find out eventually whether Meadows is a top level criminal target in both these probes, or if he’s cooperating in both these probes. These things only remain secret in the moment, and come out in the end. For now, it’s still the biggest question in all of this.