The Biden debate “disaster” that wasn’t
From the outset it was clear that President Joe Biden was clearly under the weather during last night’s debate. He missed an opportunity to capitalize on his recent momentum in the polls. But even as the media rushed to declare the whole thing a disaster for Biden, and even began ludicrously hyping the notion that he would be replaced on the ticket, reality told a different story.
For instance, TV networks like to host focus groups of persuadable voters, so they can decide who “won” the debate. CNN, which hosted the debate, had a focus group of fourteen people. It turned out seven of them thought Biden won the debate. Another six thought Trump won, and one of them was undecided about who won.
I’ve always had my problems with these kinds of focus groups. In reality the two kinds of “undecided” voters are 1) those who haven’t decided whether to vote for the Democrat or stay home, and 2) those who haven’t decided whether to vote for the Republican or stay home. When people go on TV and claim to be undecided about whether to vote for the Democrat or the Republican, they’re typically attention seekers, and they most often don’t end up voting at all.
All that said, when it came to these fourteen people who don’t have a political side, half of them said that Biden won the debate. Half. Does that sound like a disaster to you? When you’re up against a guy like Trump, who spends most of his time talking about sharks and batteries, it’s a missed opportunity if only half of the folks think you won the debate. But it’s certainly not a disaster or anything of the sort.
What’s remarkable is that even after half of CNN’s own focus group said that Biden won the debate, CNN (and MSNBC) simply ignored this and instead went into their doomsday hyperbole narratives about how Biden is finished and needs to be replaced. It’s a timely reminder that what you’re hearing on these networks seldom has any connection to reality. It’s also a reminder that you watch these emotionally manipulative ratings driven channels at your own risk.
Back in the real world, was this debate good news for Biden? Absolutely not. He’s only a point or two ahead in the national polling averages, and he missed an opportunity to expand his lead. That’s not the outcome you want. But all available evidence suggests that this debate played to a draw in terms of impact. Neither candidate gained or lost a single vote based on this debate. It was a missed opportunity for them both. Biden was severely ill and an addled Trump still couldn’t outshine him. Given that Trump has a criminal trial sentencing hearing coming up in two weeks, you’d still rather be Biden than Trump right now. And that alone tells you that the debate wasn’t a “disaster” for Biden at all.
