The 3% solution
Now that it’s starting to look like at least one of Donald Trump’s criminal trials will be televised, it raises the question as to whether it can actually move the needle. I’ll put it this way. The before and after numbers suggest that the January 6th public hearings may have shifted public opinion by three points.
Three points is huge. Three points nationwide would probably change the outcome in the five most competitive House seats. For that matter three points would have kept Trump out of office to begin with! Three points is a lot. Two points is a lot.
So if you’re trying to figure out if Trump’s televised trial will move the needle, don’t waste your time worrying about irrelevant groups like Trump’s base, whose views are already cemented. Those people are already going to vote how they’re going to vote, which is why they don’t count.
Instead ask yourself if Donald Trump’s televised trial can change the minds of 3% of Americans in the middle. That’s the ballgame. And remember, it’s never a matter of people being convinced to vote for Biden instead of Trump. Instead it comes down to two different groups of persuadable people. It’s a matter of the most tepid of would-be Trump voters being convinced to stay home, and people who were going to stay home being convinced to vote for Biden.
These are the groups and factors and percentages that decide elections, not all this endless pontification on TV about Trump’s base. This comes down to what elections always come down to: can you get three percent of people in the middle to change their minds?
