The 2022 midterm numbers just turned a corner
Even as Donald Trump continues to hog the headlines on his way to prison, Trump’s downfall is not nearly as urgent or important right now as the fact that a bunch of mini-Trumps are trying to seize control of Congress in about seven weeks. If they win the House or the Senate they’ll bring President Biden’s legislative agenda to an end, and they’ll launch bogus committee investigations into all kinds of fake scandals.
For the past month the Democrats have been considered the favorites to win the Senate, and its a toss-up as to whether they can add the two seats needed to override the filibuster and do everything they want to do. Democratic activists simply need to put in the work on the most competitive Senate races in order to keep those numbers trending in the Democratic candidates’ direction.
The tricky part is the House. To give you an idea of how heavily the 2022 midterm House races are stacked in favor of the Republicans, as recently as a couple months ago, FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe model gave the Democrats just a 13% chance of keeping the House. Talk about a long shot. But as of now, that 13% number has more than doubled to 28%. Further, FiveThirtyEight’s polls-only model now gives the Democrats a 41% chance of winning the House – the highest that number has climbed to date.
Polls and projections are just an interpretive snapshot. But these FiveThirtyEight numbers now make three things clear. First, the House is clearly within reach for the Democrats. When you have 41% odds of winning, you’re almost in toss-up territory. Second, the numbers keep trending in the Democrats’ direction, which is precisely the position you want to be in when you’re talking about a tossup. Third, with just seven weeks left, the Democrats need help in order to get over the top.
That’s where you come in. Out of 435 House races around the country, only about 10% to 12% of them are projected to be competitive enough to come down to the wire. These are the races that will decide the House majority.
So what can you do? If you have money, donate to these races. Many of them are lower profile, so even a small donation can make a big difference. If you have time, sign up to volunteer. They’re labeled by district, so you can pick the ones that are within driving distance. If you don’t live near any of these races, you can volunteer online from home. If you don’t have time or money to spare, you can help by sharing these candidate links on your Facebook and Twitter pages, so your followers with time or money will see it and contribute in their own way:
Toss-up races (Democratic challenger)
Yadira Caraveo CO-08 (Colorado): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Eric Sorensen IL-17 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Wiley Nickel NC-13 (North Carolina): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Seth Magaziner (Rhode Island): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Josh Riley NY-19 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jamie McLeod-Skinner OR-05 (Oregon): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Francis Conole NY-22 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Christy Smith CA-27 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Rudy Salas CA-22 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Annette Taddeo FL-27 (Florida): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Chris Deluzio PA-17 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Emilia Sykes OH-13 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Tony Vargas NE-02 (Nebraska): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Gabe Vasquez, NM-02 (New Mexico): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Greg Landsman OH-1 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Adam Gray CA-13 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
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Toss-up races (Democratic incumbent)
Susie Lee NV-03 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Steven Horsford NV-04 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Marcy Kaptur OH-09 (Ohio): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Elaine Luria VA-02 (Virginia): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Mary Peltola (Alaska): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Dan Kildee MI-08 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Matt Cartwright PA-08 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jared Golden ME-02 (Maine): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Frank Mrvan IN-01 (Indiana): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Kim Schrier WA-08 (Washington): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Sharice Davids KS-03 (Kansas): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Elissa Slotkin MI-07 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Chris Pappas NH-01 (New Hampshire): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Tom Malinowski NJ-07 (New Jersey): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Angie Craig MN-02 (Minnesota): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Dina Titus NV-01 (Nevada): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
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Lean-R races
Brad Pfaff WI-03 (Wisconsin): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Susan Wild PA-07 (Pennsylvania): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez WA-03 (Washington): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Kirsten Engel AZ-06 (Arizona): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Bridget Fleming NY-01 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Michelle Vallejo TX-15 (Texas): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Cindy Axne IA-03 (Iowa): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jevin Hodge AZ-01 (Arizona): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Will Rollins CA-41 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jay Chen CA-45 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
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Lean-D races
Don Davis NC-01 (North Carolina): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Mike Levin CA-49 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Hillary Scholten MI-03 (Michigan): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Nikki Budzinski IL-13 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Katie Porter CA-47 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Josh Harder CA-09 (California): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Sean Casten IL-06 (Illinois): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Pat Ryan NY-18 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Annie Kuster NH-02 (New Hampshire): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Sean Patrick Maloney NY-17 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Abigail Spanberger VA-07 (Virginia): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Robert Zimmerman NY-03 (New York): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
Jahana Hayes CT-05 (Connecticut): Campaign website • Donate • Volunteer • Follow on Twitter
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About this list: The “volunteer” links are the volunteer page provided by the candidate’s official website. The “donate” links lead directly to the ActBlue donation page that the candidate has designated on his or her official website, meaning the money goes directly to the candidate. The Toss-up, Lean-R, and Lean-D rankings primarily come from Cook Political Report, which has had a strong track record with such predictions in this election cycle. The order of the candidates is random with each category, and is changed each time the list is republished, in an attempt at fairness. Broken or incorrect links? Email us.
