Here’s what it really means that the House Judiciary Committee just voted to subpoena the Mueller report
Here we go. It took them ten days, because that’s more or less how the congressional subpoena process works, but the House Judiciary Committee has finally voted today to subpoena the full unredacted Robert Mueller report. So what does this really mean, what happens next, and when does the public get to see the Mueller report?
As Palmer Report has been cautioning, subpoenas don’t necessarily produce immediate or automatic results, because they can be fought in court. In fact, while the committee voted today to give Chairman Jerry Nadler the power to subpoena the Mueller report, he has publicly stated that he’s still going to give Attorney General William Barr a bit more time to come to his senses before actually serving him the subpoena. This makes strategic sense, and for two reasons.
First, this is all about leverage. If Nadler were to simply hit Barr with the subpoena today, Barr would likely assume a defensive posture and initiate a court battle. Although the House Democrats have the winning hand here in court, Barr could try to drag it out as long as possible. Instead, Nadler is first going to try to convince Barr that he can’t win this fight, he can only delay it – and that he’s better off giving the Democrats most of what they want now, as opposed to going into court and ending up having to give the Democrats all of what they want later.
Also, if this does end up in court, the judge will likely look at factors such as how reasonable the House Democrats were in their approach. They gave Barr a ten day window before voting to hit him with a subpoena, and now they’re giving him perhaps a few days longer before actually serving the subpoena, which will allow them to argue to the judge that they did everything possible to resolve this matter amicably. Again, this is why the Democrats have taken the approach they’ve taken, as opposed to simply hitting Barr with a subpoena the minute he published his phony “summary.”
So what happens next? For the moment, that’s entirely up to William Barr. If he concludes that he can’t win this fight, and offers to promptly give Nadler most of what he wants with regard to the Mueller report, Nadler will take it. If Barr decides to dig in and fight this, Nadler and the House Democrats will have overwhelming public pressure on their side as leverage – and they’ll use it. These battles are not only fought in a court of law, they’re fought in the court of public opinion.
Also, look for additional related subpoenas if this turns ugly. Nadler can subpoena William Barr to publicly testify about his handling of the matter, as House Democrats could use the hearing to try to trip Barr up about his deceptions, and place even more public pressure on him. Nadler can also subpoena Robert Mueller to publicly testify about the report. Mueller would surely be willing, but Barr would try to muzzle Mueller, resulting in yet another court battle. But one way or the other, House Democrats will unearth the Mueller report – and in the end, neither Barr nor Donald Trump can stop it from happening.
